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HSTMHealthStream, Inc.Sell5.3·$28.94-0.28%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

HSTM combines a consistent earnings-beat track record and excellent cash conversion with a rich valuation, elevated leverage, and a negative risk-reward asymmetry now that its price target has effectively been reached.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Earnings Beat Track RecordImproving
  • Excellent Cash Conversion QualityStable
  • Rich Valuation With Limited UpsideStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

HealthStream, Inc. (HSTM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Health Information Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.94 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: healthcare industry.

HealthStream provides SaaS-based workforce development solutions to U.S. healthcare organizations, spanning learning and compliance training, clinical competency development, staff scheduling, and credentialing/privileging through its hStream technology platform. The company,... Read more

$28.94+1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#15 of 22 Health Information Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.95%
IncomeYield0.47%Payout18.33%sustainable
Stop $26.91Target $29.32(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$34.50+19.2%2 analysts
$29.32our TP
$28.94price
$34.50mean
$40

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.94 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: healthcare industry. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 2, 202679d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Wide economic moat
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: healthcare industry
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)40.2
P/E (Fwd)32.7
Mkt Cap$846M
EV/EBITDA17.7
Profit Mgn6.6%
ROE6.0%
Rev Growth12.5%
Beta0.44
Dividend0.47%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWide

Options Flow

IV121%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerhealthcare industry
    10-K Item 1A: 'our lack of market diversification resulting from our concentration on the healthcare industry may make us susceptible to losing market share to our competitors'
  • MEDIUMCustomerhealthcare provider customers
    10-K Item 1: 'We derive a substantial portion of our revenues from a relatively small number of customers that are healthcare providers.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOW
    Michael M. Collier was promoted to Chief Operating Officer and EVP from EVP, Corporate Strategy, Development & Operations, effective May 4, 2026, and granted options for 18,781 shares. Routine promotion, not a departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
1.4
Pe
3.0
Peg Ratio
3.4
Forward Pe
3.5
Ps
8.5
Forward P/E: 32.7xPEG: 3.57
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $26.26Resistance $31.11

Price Targets

$27
$29
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.3% upside)
! momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-02 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HSTM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.94 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: healthcare industry. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $26.91. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HSTM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.32 (+1.3% upside). Prior stop was $26.91. Stop-loss: $26.91.

What are the risks of investing in HSTM?

Concentration risk — Customer: healthcare industry; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

Is HSTM overvalued or undervalued?

HealthStream, Inc. trades at a P/E of 40.2 (forward 32.7). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HSTM?

11 analysts cover HSTM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $35.

What does HealthStream, Inc. do?HealthStream provides SaaS-based workforce development solutions to U.S. healthcare organizations, spanning learning...

HealthStream provides SaaS-based workforce development solutions to U.S. healthcare organizations, spanning learning and compliance training, clinical competency development, staff scheduling, and credentialing/privileging through its hStream technology platform. The company, organized as a single reportable segment since 2023, derives a substantial portion of its subscription-based revenue from a relatively small number of healthcare-provider customers, though no single customer exceeded 10% of 2025 revenue, and has grown through acquisitions including Virsys12 and MissionCare Collective in 2

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