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HSTMHealthStream, Inc.Buy Wait5.2·$33.70
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

HSTM combines a consistent earnings-beat track record and excellent cash conversion with a rich valuation, elevated leverage, and a negative risk-reward asymmetry now that its price target has effectively been reached.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Earnings Beat Track Record→Stable
  • Excellent Cash Conversion Quality→Stable
  • Rich Valuation With Limited Upside→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

HealthStream, Inc. (HSTM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 3/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Health Information Services

Earnings today — results expected after close (2026-11-02). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $31.78. Price sits above the model's entry target of $31.78; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: healthcare industry; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

HealthStream provides SaaS-based workforce development solutions to U.S. healthcare organizations, spanning learning and compliance training, clinical competency development, staff scheduling, and credentialing/privileging through its hStream technology platform. The company,... Read more

$33.70-11.7% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#16 of 22 Health Information Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.88%
IncomeYield0.40%Payout18.33%sustainable
Entry $31.78(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $29.96Analyst target $29.75(reached)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst consensus$35.00+3.9%3 analysts
$33.70price
$35.00mean
$29
$40

Wait for pullback to $31.78. Price sits above the model's entry target of $31.78; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: healthcare industry; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 2/7 gates (semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-11-02
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 2, 2026Earnings today — results expected after close· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Wide economic moat
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: healthcare industry
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)46.8
P/E (Fwd)38.1
Mkt Cap$1.0B
EV/EBITDA20.8
Profit Mgn6.6%
ROE6.0%
Rev Growth12.5%
Beta0.42
Dividend0.40%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWide

Options Flow

IV76%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerhealthcare industry
    10-K Item 1A: 'our lack of market diversification resulting from our concentration on the healthcare industry may make us susceptible to losing market share to our competitors'
  • MEDIUMCustomerhealthcare provider customers
    10-K Item 1: 'We derive a substantial portion of our revenues from a relatively small number of customers that are healthcare providers.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOW
    Michael M. Collier was promoted to Chief Operating Officer and EVP from EVP, Corporate Strategy, Development & Operations, effective May 4, 2026, and granted options for 18,781 shares. Routine promotion, not a departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.7
Forward Pe
2.9
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
3.5
Ps
8.1
Forward P/E: 38.1xPEG: 3.30

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.3
Volume
2.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.45%=HEAVYEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.89Resistance $35.60

Price Targets

A.Upside-11.7%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.7% upside)
! Earnings today - binary event risk
! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-02 (Earnings today — results expected after close)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HSTM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $31.78. Price sits above the model's entry target of $31.78; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: healthcare industry; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Analyst target $29.75 reached (−11.7%), stop $29.96 (−12.5%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HSTM stock price target?

Analyst target $29.75 reached (−11.7% from $33.70); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $29.75 reached (−11.7%), stop $29.96 (−12.5%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Stop-loss: $29.96.

What are the risks of investing in HSTM?

Concentration risk — Customer: healthcare industry; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

Is HSTM overvalued or undervalued?

HealthStream, Inc. trades at a P/E of 46.8 (forward 38.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HSTM?

12 analysts cover HSTM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $35.

What does HealthStream, Inc. do?HealthStream provides SaaS-based workforce development solutions to U.S. healthcare organizations, spanning learning...

HealthStream provides SaaS-based workforce development solutions to U.S. healthcare organizations, spanning learning and compliance training, clinical competency development, staff scheduling, and credentialing/privileging through its hStream technology platform. The company, organized as a single reportable segment since 2023, derives a substantial portion of its subscription-based revenue from a relatively small number of healthcare-provider customers, though no single customer exceeded 10% of 2025 revenue, and has grown through acquisitions including Virsys12 and MissionCare Collective in 2

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