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HMCHonda Motor Company, Ltd.Sell5.0·$26.83+2.64%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Honda Motor trades at depressed forward multiples, but the investment case is constrained by quality well below the minimum threshold, negative free cash flow, a consistent earnings miss record, and a confirmed technical downtrend — the apparent cheapness reflects genuine fundamental concerns that must improve materially before the valuation discount becomes actionable.

Thesis pillars

  • Severe Quality Deficit Negative FcfStable
  • Distressed Valuation MultiplesStable
  • Consistent Earnings Miss RecordStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Honda Motor Company, Ltd. (HMC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.83: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.67; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. engages in the development, manufacturing, and distribution of motorcycles, automobiles, and power products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Motorcycle Business, Automobile Business, Financial... Read more

$26.83+3.2% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#9 of 16 Auto Manufacturers
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-3636.35%
IncomeYield4.96%(5y avg 4.10%)Payout55.35%sustainable
Stop $25.63Target $27.68(resistance)A.R:R -2.1:1
Analyst target$28.28+5.4%3 analysts
$27.68our TP
$26.83price
$28.28mean
$23
$32

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.83: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.67; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202639d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-10.4% upside)
Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)5.4
Mkt Cap$34.8B
EV/EBITDA9.9
Profit Mgn-1.9%
ROE-2.8%
Rev Growth8.6%
Beta0.29
Dividend4.96%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.67bearish
IV42%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
3.6
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
4.8
Cash-burning: FCF -6% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns
GatesA.R:R -2.1=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $25.55Resistance $28.25

Price Targets

$26
$28
A.Upside+3.2%
A.R:R-2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.4% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HMC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.83: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.67; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $25.63. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.68 (+3.2% upside). Prior stop was $25.63. Stop-loss: $25.63.

What are the risks of investing in HMC?

Target reached (-10.4% upside); Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0).

Is HMC overvalued or undervalued?

Honda Motor Company, Ltd. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 5.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HMC?

25 analysts cover HMC with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Honda Motor Company, Ltd. do?Honda Motor Co., Ltd. engages in the development, manufacturing, and distribution of motorcycles, automobiles, and...

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. engages in the development, manufacturing, and distribution of motorcycles, automobiles, and power products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Motorcycle Business, Automobile Business, Financial Services Business, and Power Product and Other Businesses. The Motorcycle Business segment produces motorcycles, including sports, business, and commuter models; and various off-road vehicles, such as all-terrain vehicles and side-by-sides. The Automobile Business segment offers passenger cars, light trucks, and mini vehicles. The Financial Services Business segment provides various financial services, including retail lending and leasing services to customers, as well as wholesale financing services to dealers. The Power Product and Other Businesses manufactures and sells power products, such as general-purpose engines, lawn mowers, generators, water pumps, brush cutters, and tillers. This segment also offers HondaJet aircraft. The company also sells spare parts; and provides after-sales services through retail dealers directly, as well as through independent distributors and licensees. Honda Motor Co., Ltd. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Related stocks: NIO (NIO Inc.) · VFS (VinFast Auto Ltd.) · TM (Toyota Motor Corporation) · RACE (Ferrari N.V.) · STLA (Stellantis N.V.)
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