Houlihan Lokey carries a high-quality franchise with strong operating margins and a favorable long-term earnings record, but a confirmed technical downtrend, a recent earnings miss, declining revenue, and a risk/reward just below the asymmetry threshold argue for holding existing positions and waiting for momentum to stabilize before committing new capital.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Franchise Reasonable Valuation→Stable
- Revenue Decline Growth Headwind↓Deteriorating
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Temporary headwind edge
Financial Services · Capital Markets
Sell if holding. At $128.68, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Houlihan Lokey is an independent investment bank established in 1972, operating across three segments — Corporate Finance (M&A and capital solutions), Financial Restructuring, and Financial and Valuation Advisory — from more than 30 offices worldwide with over 1,900 financial... Read more
Sell if holding. At $128.68, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Houlihan Lokey, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS HOULIHAN LOKEY ($HLI) Releases Q1 2027 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS HOULIHAN LOKEY ($HLI) Releases Q1 2027 Earnings - quiverquant.com — quiverquant.com positive
- NEWS Houlihan Lokey (NYSE:HLI) Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q2 CY2026 Earnings, Stock Drops - StockStory — StockStory negative
- NEWS Houlihan Lokey (NYSE:HLI) Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q2 CY2026 Earnings, Stock Drops - FinancialContent — FinancialContent negative
- NEWS Earnings Flash (HLI) Houlihan Lokey, Inc. Posts Q1 Adjusted EPS $1.35 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $1.64 - marketscreen — marketscreener.com negative
Generated 2026-08-15T11:27:12Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicinternational operations32%10-K Item 1A: 'In fiscal 2026, we earned approximately 32.2% of our revenue from our international operations.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $128.68, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $119.67. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $133.54 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $119.67. Stop-loss: $119.67.
Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative news sentiment (-0.67).
Houlihan Lokey, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.8 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover HLI with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $154.
What does Houlihan Lokey, Inc. do?Houlihan Lokey is an independent investment bank established in 1972, operating across three segments — Corporate...
Houlihan Lokey is an independent investment bank established in 1972, operating across three segments — Corporate Finance (M&A and capital solutions), Financial Restructuring, and Financial and Valuation Advisory — from more than 30 offices worldwide with over 1,900 financial professionals. Revenue is driven primarily by advisory fees, a substantial portion contingent on transaction completion, with approximately 32% derived from international operations in fiscal 2026. The firm employed approximately 2,800 people as of March 31, 2026.