The business demonstrates exceptional quality—a wide economic moat, 34% return on equity, 42% operating margins, and a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9—paired with 32% revenue growth and roughly 30% upside to the analyst price target; the primary near-term overhangs are weak price momentum and a free cash flow conversion shortfall that deserve monitoring before adding to the position.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Over 81% of production is concentrated in two geographic regions, representing a material single-point-of-failure risk if either basin experiences regulatory, pricing, or operational disruption—a risk the available data classifies as high severity. Bear case | Production concentration in the top two basins should move below 70% within 12 months as evidence of meaningful geographic diversification. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh geographic focus can imply operational efficiency and deep-basin expertise; concentrated operators often achieve better per-unit economics in their chosen basins than broadly diversified peers. | ||
With a return on equity of 34%, operating margins of 42%, a wide economic moat, and a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9, this is a genuinely high-quality business generating strong returns across multiple quality dimensions simultaneously. Quality | Return on equity should sustain above 20% for the next 4 quarters, confirming that the high-return profile is durable rather than a one-cycle phenomenon. | →Stable |
| CounterGeographic concentration in two basins covering 81% of operations—identified as a significant risk—means the strong margins and returns could be impaired more severely than for diversified operators if either basin faces adverse conditions. | ||
Revenue grew 32% year-over-year with peer-relative rankings on both value and growth metrics near the top of the industry, suggesting the company is expanding its output or realizing stronger pricing in its key markets. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should remain above 10% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the current expansion is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced a 5.78% earnings miss, which may indicate that cost pressures or production challenges are beginning to emerge against the strong revenue backdrop. | ||
Over 81% of production is concentrated in two geographic regions, representing a material single-point-of-failure risk if either basin experiences regulatory, pricing, or operational disruption—a risk the available data classifies as high severity.
→Stable- Expectation
- Production concentration in the top two basins should move below 70% within 12 months as evidence of meaningful geographic diversification.
CounterHigh geographic focus can imply operational efficiency and deep-basin expertise; concentrated operators often achieve better per-unit economics in their chosen basins than broadly diversified peers.
With a return on equity of 34%, operating margins of 42%, a wide economic moat, and a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9, this is a genuinely high-quality business generating strong returns across multiple quality dimensions simultaneously.
→Stable- Expectation
- Return on equity should sustain above 20% for the next 4 quarters, confirming that the high-return profile is durable rather than a one-cycle phenomenon.
CounterGeographic concentration in two basins covering 81% of operations—identified as a significant risk—means the strong margins and returns could be impaired more severely than for diversified operators if either basin faces adverse conditions.
Revenue grew 32% year-over-year with peer-relative rankings on both value and growth metrics near the top of the industry, suggesting the company is expanding its output or realizing stronger pricing in its key markets.
→Stable- Expectation
- Revenue growth should remain above 10% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the current expansion is durable.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced a 5.78% earnings miss, which may indicate that cost pressures or production challenges are beginning to emerge against the strong revenue backdrop.
▸ Show 2 more pillars▾ Show fewer
Free cash flow represents only 25% of net income—flagged as a red flag in the quality assessment—meaning that roughly three-quarters of reported earnings do not materialize as spendable cash, a gap that deserves resolution before the earnings-based valuation fully holds.
→Stable- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income should recover above 60% for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the gap between reported and cash earnings is narrowing.
CounterFCF can temporarily lag net income during periods of rapid revenue growth due to working capital absorption; if the underlying cash dynamics normalize as expansion matures, the conversion rate could improve without signaling any fundamental problem.
Price has pulled back below the 200-day moving average, but the long-term average itself continues to trend higher at +0.4% per 30 days—a condition the available data explicitly characterizes as a pullback within an uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
→Stable- Expectation
- Price should recover above the 200-day moving average within 6 months, with the long-term average slope remaining positive, confirming the uptrend has not broken.
CounterMomentum has fallen to 2.6, RSI is at 31, MACD is bearish, and the OBV is declining, creating conditions where a temporary pullback can become self-reinforcing and turn into a genuine breakdown if no catalyst materializes.
Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR) Stock Analysis
Temp Headwind edge
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $178.28 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Utica/Marcellus (81.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern Ohio and central Oklahoma.
Gulfport Energy is an independent natural gas-weighted E&P company producing approximately 1.038 Bcfe per day, with 81% from the Utica/Marcellus in eastern Ohio and 19% from the SCOOP in central Oklahoma. Proved reserves totaled 4.3 Tcfe at December 31, 2025 with PV-10 of $3.6... Read more
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $178.28 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Utica/Marcellus (81.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern Ohio and central Oklahoma. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.9 < 4.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=energy 1/10). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-24Recent Developments — Gulfport Energy Corporation
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Jun 1, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: On May 28, 2026, Domenic J. Dell'Osso, Jr. appointed President and CEO of Gulfport Energy, effective May 28, 2026. Previously CEO of Expand Energy Corp (formerly Chesapeake Energy) 2021–Feb 2026. Board expanded to 7 members; Dell'Osso joined through 2027 Annual Meeting. RSU grant also approved for S
Latest news
- NEWS William Blair Maintains Gulfport Energy(GPOR.US) With Buy Rating - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 positive
- NEWS How The Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Story Is Shifting As Analyst Views Rebalance - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Mizuho upgrades Gulfport Energy stock rating on valuation opportunity - Investing.com UK — Investing.com UK positive
- NEWS Gulfport Energy (NYSE:GPOR) Raised to "Outperform" at Mizuho - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Mizuho Securities Upgrades Gulfport Energy to Outperform From Neutral, $251 Price Target - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com positive
Generated 2026-06-25T01:32:43Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicUtica/Marcellus81%10-K Item 1: 'we produced approximately 841 MMcfe per day net to our interests in Utica/Marcellus and it accounted for approximately 81% of our total production.'
- HIGHGeographiceastern Ohio and central Oklahoma10-K Item 1A: 'All of our producing properties are located in eastern Ohio and central Oklahoma, making us vulnerable to risks associated with operating in only these regions.'
- MEDIUMCommoditynatural gas10-K Item 1: 'Gulfport is an independent natural gas-weighted exploration and production company with assets primarily located in the Appalachia and Anadarko basins.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-01Item 5.02MEDIUMOn May 28, 2026, Domenic J. Dell'Osso, Jr. appointed President and CEO of Gulfport Energy, effective May 28, 2026. Previously CEO of Expand Energy Corp (formerly Chesapeake Energy) 2021–Feb 2026. Board expanded to 7 members; Dell'Osso joined through 2027 Annual Meeting. RSU grant also approved for SVP of Reservoir Engineering ($222,500).SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $178.28 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Utica/Marcellus (81.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern Ohio and central Oklahoma. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.9 < 4.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Target $210.54 (+30.8%), stop $169.52 (−-5.0%), Setup A.R:R 6.2:1. Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $210.54 (+34.5% upside). Target $210.54 (+30.8%), stop $169.52 (−-5.0%), Setup A.R:R 6.2:1. Stop-loss: $169.52.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Utica/Marcellus (81.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern Ohio and central Oklahoma; Negative momentum.
Gulfport Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of 5.3 (forward 5.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
19 analysts cover GPOR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $242.
What does Gulfport Energy Corporation do?Gulfport Energy is an independent natural gas-weighted E&P company producing approximately 1.038 Bcfe per day, with 81%...
Gulfport Energy is an independent natural gas-weighted E&P company producing approximately 1.038 Bcfe per day, with 81% from the Utica/Marcellus in eastern Ohio and 19% from the SCOOP in central Oklahoma. Proved reserves totaled 4.3 Tcfe at December 31, 2025 with PV-10 of $3.6 billion, supported by a 2026 capital program of $400-$430 million targeting approximately 1.030-1.055 Bcfe per day.