With only 2.6% headroom to the analyst price target, an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio of 0.37, quality below the minimum threshold, and a dividend payout ratio of 401% that substantially exceeds reported earnings, the setup tilts firmly toward caution despite an otherwise reasonable earnings beat record.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Deficit Fcf Conversion→Stable
- Dividend Sustainability Risk→Stable
- Earnings Beat Consistency→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Graphic Packaging Holding Compa (GPK) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.85: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company designs and manufactures sustainable packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, as well as cups and bowls... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.85: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Graphic Packaging Holding Compa
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Jun 11, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Effective June 11, 2026, following the Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Mr. Philip R. Martens retired from his positions as a member and Chairman of the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (the "Company"). Mr. Larry M.
Latest news
- NEWS JP Morgan Initiates Coverage On Graphic Packaging Holding with Neutral Rating, Announces Price Target of $11.7 — benzinga Jun 29, 2026
- NEWS Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts Give Their Take On 3 Materials Stocks Delivering High-Dividend Yields — benzinga Jun 17, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Graphic Packaging Appoints Larry M. Venturelli Board Chairman, Succeeding Philip R. Martens — benzinga Jun 11, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Graphic Packaging Holding, Raises Price Target to $12 — benzinga May 7, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Neutral on Graphic Packaging Holding, Raises Price Target to $11 — benzinga May 7, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-11Item 5.02MEDIUMEffective June 11, 2026, following the Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Mr. Philip R. Martens retired from his positions as a member and Chairman of the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (the "Company"). Mr. Larry M.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.85: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $10.09. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $11.03 (+1.7% upside). Prior stop was $10.09. Stop-loss: $10.09.
Target reached (-5.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).
Graphic Packaging Holding Compa trades at a P/E of 11.8 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover GPK with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $12.
What does Graphic Packaging Holding Compa do?The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company...
The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company designs and manufactures sustainable packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, as well as cups and bowls made primarily from recycled paperboard, unbleached paperboard and bleached paperboard.