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GNWGenworth Financial IncSell4.7·$8.85-0.73%
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Genworth Financial Inc (GNW) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Life

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.85: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Genworth Financial provides private mortgage insurance via majority-owned Enact Holdings (NYSE: ACT) and is developing CareScout aging-care services; legacy Closed Block runs off LTC/life/annuity products. Enact contributed $407M in capital returns to Genworth in 2025; CareScout... Read more

$8.85+5.6% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#12 of 15 Insurance - Life
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield29.41%
Stop $8.49Target $9.35(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$11.00+24.3%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.85: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — Genworth Financial Inc

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.1
P/E (Fwd)24.7
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA8.3
Profit Mgn3.0%
ROE3.5%
Rev Growth-0.5%
Beta0.87
DividendNone
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.09bullish
IV23%low
Max Pain$1-88.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerlargest customer12%
    10-K Item 1: 'Enact's largest customer accounted for 22% of its new insurance written and 12% of its total revenues'
  • MEDIUMCustomerlargest five lender customers33%
    10-K Item 1: 'Enact's largest five lender customers generated 33% of its new insurance written in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -0.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.3
Revenue Growth
2.4
Declining revenue: -0%

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Roa
0.3
Roe
1.2
Net Margin
1.5
Operating Margin
3.1
Moat
4.6
Current Ratio
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 465% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.0
Growth Rank
2.0
Value Rank
5.4
GatesA.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.27Resistance $9.34

Price Targets

$8
$9
A.Upside+5.6%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GNW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.85: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $8.49. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GNW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.35 (+5.6% upside). Prior stop was $8.49. Stop-loss: $8.49.

What are the risks of investing in GNW?

Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).

Is GNW overvalued or undervalued?

Genworth Financial Inc trades at a P/E of 17.1 (forward 24.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GNW?

6 analysts cover GNW with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $11.

What does Genworth Financial Inc do?Genworth Financial provides private mortgage insurance via majority-owned Enact Holdings (NYSE: ACT) and is developing...

Genworth Financial provides private mortgage insurance via majority-owned Enact Holdings (NYSE: ACT) and is developing CareScout aging-care services; legacy Closed Block runs off LTC/life/annuity products. Enact contributed $407M in capital returns to Genworth in 2025; CareScout expanded its network to ~790 home care providers with 1,000+ locations nationally.

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