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GHCGraham Holdings CompanySell5.6·$1183.27+1.14%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Graham Holdings combines a strong earnings beat record averaging approximately 19 percentage points above consensus with powerful technical momentum in a breakout configuration, but the stock has substantially overrun analyst consensus estimates and the free cash flow conversion of 70% relative to net income warrants monitoring before adding to the position.

Thesis pillars

  • Consistent Earnings OutperformanceStable
  • Technical Breakout With Strong MomentumStable
  • Stock Substantially Above Analyst ConsensusStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Graham Holdings Company (GHC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Conglomerates

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1183.27 — A.R:R is negative (-4.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.4% away).

Certified Accountants), CIMA (Chartered Institute of Management Accountants), and ICAEW (Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales). In 2025, this unit provided courses to approximately 44,030 students in accountancy, tax and financial services. Kaplan Professional... Read more

$1183.27-1.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#5 of 19 Conglomerates
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.07%
IncomeYield0.64%(5y avg 0.91%)Payout10.76%sustainable
Stop $1108.93Target $1171.10(resistance)A.R:R -4.3:1
Analyst target$990.00-16.3%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1183.27 — A.R:R is negative (-4.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.4% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202626d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.4% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.5
P/E (Fwd)17.7
Mkt Cap$5.1B
EV/EBITDA10.6
Profit Mgn6.0%
ROE6.7%
Rev Growth6.0%
Beta0.72
Dividend0.64%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.3
52w Position
9.4
GatesA.R:R -4.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $1103.95Resistance $1195.00

Price Targets

$1109
$1171
A.Upside-1.0%
A.R:R-4.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-28.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GHC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1183.27 — A.R:R is negative (-4.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.4% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $1108.93. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1171.10 (-1.0% upside). Prior stop was $1108.93. Stop-loss: $1108.93.

What are the risks of investing in GHC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.4% away).

Is GHC overvalued or undervalued?

Graham Holdings Company trades at a P/E of 17.5 (forward 17.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GHC?

8 analysts cover GHC with a consensus score of 2.1/5. Average price target: $990.

What does Graham Holdings Company do?Certified Accountants), CIMA (Chartered Institute of Management Accountants), and ICAEW (Institute of Chartered...

Certified Accountants), CIMA (Chartered Institute of Management Accountants), and ICAEW (Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales). In 2025, this unit provided courses to approximately 44,030 students in accountancy, tax and financial services. Kaplan Professional Middle East and North Africa also delivers professional training programs across the entire region with a focus on the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

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