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GFFGriffon CorporationSell4.8·$92.86+0.53%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Griffon delivers consistent earnings beats and exceptional free cash flow conversion but carries significant leverage, declining revenue, and a risk/reward that does not clear the asymmetry bar at current levels near the 52-week high.

Thesis pillars

  • High Leverage Limits Margin Of SafetyStable
  • Revenue Decline No MoatStable
  • Earnings Consistency Steady BeatsStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Griffon Corporation (GFF) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. At $92.86, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 15.6): -1.5; Weak overall score: 4.8/10.

Griffon Corporation operates through two segments: Home and Building Products (HBP), which through Clopay is North America's largest manufacturer and marketer of garage doors, and Consumer and Professional Products (CPP), a global provider of branded tools, fans, and storage... Read more

$92.86+11.0% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#18 of 26 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.35%
IncomeYield0.95%(5y avg 1.06%)Payout78.43%
Stop $86.36Target $103.03(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$118.43+27.5%7 analysts
$103.03our TP
$92.86price
$118.43mean
$135

Sell if holding. At $92.86, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 15.6): -1.5; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 15.6): -1.5
Weak overall score: 4.8/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)91.0
P/E (Fwd)16.1
Mkt Cap$4.3B
EV/EBITDA11.1
Profit Mgn0.3%
ROE28.9%
Rev Growth-1.1%
Beta1.36
Dividend0.95%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.67bearish
IV54%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -1.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.2
Declining revenue: -1%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.3
Value Rank
3.3
Quality Rank
4.7
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 0.30%=MODERATENo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $84.89Resistance $98.36

Price Targets

$86
$103
A.Upside+11.0%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GFF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $92.86, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 15.6): -1.5; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $86.36. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the GFF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $103.03 (+11.0% upside). Prior stop was $86.36. Stop-loss: $86.36.

What are the risks of investing in GFF?

Leverage penalty (D/E 15.6): -1.5; Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth.

Is GFF overvalued or undervalued?

Griffon Corporation trades at a P/E of 91.0 (forward 16.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GFF?

11 analysts cover GFF with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $118.

What does Griffon Corporation do?Griffon Corporation operates through two segments: Home and Building Products (HBP), which through Clopay is North...

Griffon Corporation operates through two segments: Home and Building Products (HBP), which through Clopay is North America's largest manufacturer and marketer of garage doors, and Consumer and Professional Products (CPP), a global provider of branded tools, fans, and storage products. HBP contributed approximately 63% of consolidated revenue and CPP approximately 37% for fiscal year ended September 30, 2025, with roughly 5,100 employees across North America, the UK, Australia, and China.

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