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FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedBuy Wait7.1·$97.06+2.13%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A high-quality brokerage with a wide economic moat, 45% net margins, 29% year-over-year revenue growth, and a forward P/E of 8.2 times sits roughly 48% below analyst consensus with a favorable risk/reward of nearly 8-to-1 — but a technical death cross and a sharp recent earnings miss mean the setup rewards patience over immediacy, requiring chart confirmation before the fundamental case can be fully acted on.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value Versus Growth RateStable
  • Wide Moat High Margin QualityStable
  • Technical Death Cross Hard BlockStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy Wait(was: Strong Buy)DEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)AI GATE: FLAGGED — 4 risks, 1 concernModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $98.17 but a supporting gate (fundamentals / technicals) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Futu Holdings Limited engages in the provision of digitalized securities brokerage and wealth management product distribution service in Hong Kong and internationally. It offers online financial services, including securities and derivative trades brokerage, margin financing and... Read more

$97.06+48.4% A.UpsideScore 7.1/10#1 of 49 Capital Markets
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.73%Payout0.00%sustainable
Entry $98.17(at market)Stop $91.30Target $145.70(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 5.0:1
Analyst target$161.89+66.8%18 analysts
$145.70our TP
$97.06price
$161.89mean
$250

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $98.17 but a supporting gate (fundamentals / technicals) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. News gate: flagged → wait (4 risks, 1 concerns) Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 10/11 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=financial services 3/10). Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 19, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong overall score: 7.1/10
High-quality business
Risks
Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.5
P/E (Fwd)7.8
Mkt Cap$13.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn45.0%
ROE27.8%
Rev Growth28.8%
Beta0.38
Dividend2.73%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.08bearish
IV71%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
3.3
Support Resistance
3.9
GatesDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 6.0>=5.5A.R:R 5.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Financial Services 3/10RecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $88.78Resistance $104.13

Price Targets

$91
$98
$146
A.Upside+50.1%
A.R:R5.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.9%
Max %3.9%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! News gate: flagged → wait (4 risks, 1 concerns)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-19 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FUTU stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $98.17 but a supporting gate (fundamentals / technicals) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. News gate: flagged → wait (4 risks, 1 concerns) Target $145.70 (+50.1%), stop $91.30 (−6.3%), A.R:R 5.0:1. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FUTU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $145.70 (+48.4% upside). Target $145.70 (+50.1%), stop $91.30 (−6.3%), A.R:R 5.0:1. Stop-loss: $91.30.

What are the risks of investing in FUTU?

Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is FUTU overvalued or undervalued?

Futu Holdings Limited trades at a P/E of 10.5 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about FUTU?

28 analysts cover FUTU with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $162.

What does Futu Holdings Limited do?Futu Holdings Limited engages in the provision of digitalized securities brokerage and wealth management product...

Futu Holdings Limited engages in the provision of digitalized securities brokerage and wealth management product distribution service in Hong Kong and internationally. It offers online financial services, including securities and derivative trades brokerage, margin financing and fund distribution services through its Futubull and Moomoo digital platforms. The company also provides financial information and online community services; online wealth management services under the Money Plus brand name through its Futubull and moomoo platforms, which provides its client access to mutual funds, private funds, bonds, structured products, and other wealth management products; market data and information services; and NiuNiu Community, an open forum for users and clients to share insights, ask questions, and exchange ideas. Futu Holdings Limited was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Admiralty, Hong Kong.

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