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FLGTFulgent Genetics, Inc.Sell4.5·$20.00-4.08%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

FLGT combines a historical earnings-beat catalyst with quality below the engine's minimum floor, a price already past target causing a negative asymmetry gate failure, falling analyst estimates, and a death-cross recovery attempt undercut by overbought technicals and elevated short/options positioning.

Thesis pillars

  • Elevated Short Interest And Options RiskStable
  • Quality Below Minimum FloorStable
  • Target Reached Negative AsymmetryStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Fulgent Genetics, Inc. (FLGT) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.83; Below-average business quality.

Fulgent Genetics operates a laboratory services business providing anatomic pathology, precision diagnostics, next-generation sequencing, and BioPharma testing services, alongside Fulgent Pharma, a therapeutic development unit advancing nanoencapsulated cancer drug candidates... Read more

$20.00-1.5% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#28 of 32 Diagnostics & Research
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-17.89%
Stop $20.07Target $21.07(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$18.50-7.5%2 analysts
$21.07our TP
$20.00price
$18.50mean
$15
$22

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.83; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Fulgent Genetics, Inc.

About Fulgent Genetics, Inc.

One customer accounted for $70.8 million, or 22%, of Fulgent Genetics' total revenue in 2025, up from $62.6 million, also 22%, in 2024, underscoring the concentration risk embedded in the company's laboratory testing business. Beyond diagnostics, Fulgent Pharma is advancing two clinical-stage nanoencapsulated cancer candidates, FID-007 and FID-022, with a Phase 2 trial of FID-007 in head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma expected to read out in the second half of 2027.

Laboratory customers are billed under three payor categories -- insurance, institutional accounts such as hospitals and other laboratories, and direct patient pay -- with institutional customers typically responsible for payment. The company depends on Illumina as the sole supplier of the next-generation sequencers and reagents used in its genetic tests and as sole provider of related maintenance, alongside single-source relationships with Roche, Leica Biosystems, and Abbott Laboratories for immunohistochemistry, digital pathology, and FISH equipment. Fulgent competes against larger, better-capitalized diagnostic peers including Laboratory Corporation of America, Quest Diagnostics, Natera, Myriad Genetics, and Tempus AI. In July 2025 the company acquired the remaining equity of ANP Technologies to gain full ownership of previously licensed nanoencapsulation patents underlying FID-007 and FID-022, and it has pending acquisitions of StrataDx and certain Bako Diagnostics pathology assets to expand its laboratory footprint.

Show full overview

A litigation overhang beyond diagnostic accuracy sits in reimbursement compliance: Fulgent discloses an ongoing HRSA Audit and unspecified Civil Investigative Demands that could result in material refunds or settlements tied to how the company submitted claims for its tests and testing services. Separately, the customer responsible for 22% of 2025 revenue began reducing test orders in the fourth quarter of 2025 as it shifts some testing in-house, a transition Fulgent expects will reduce revenue from that account through at least the second quarter of 2026.

See also: Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research

From Fulgent Genetics, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 31, 202625d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina
Target reached (-26.5% upside)
Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-13.6
Mkt Cap$592M
EV/EBITDA-4.2
Profit Mgn-23.0%
ROE-6.9%
Rev Growth-3.2%
Beta0.89
DividendNone
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C4.83bearish
IV142%elevated
Max Pain$3-87.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerone large customer22%
    10-K Item 1: 'one of our customers contributed $70.8 million or 22% of our total revenue in 2025, and $62.6 million or 22% of our total revenue in 2024'
  • HIGHSupplierIllumina
    10-K Item 1: 'we rely on Illumina Inc., or Illumina, as the sole supplier of the next generation sequencers and associated reagents we use to perform our genetic tests'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-14Item 5.02LOW
    At the 2026 Annual Meeting on May 14, 2026, stockholders approved a new 2026 Equity Incentive Plan authorizing 2,000,000 new shares (plus up to 1,500,000 more from forfeited prior-plan awards), replacing the 2016 Omnibus Incentive Plan.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.1
Support Resistance
0.3
52w Position
3.8

Revenue shrinking — -3.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.7
Declining revenue: -3%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Unprofitable operations — net margin -23.0%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
3.2
Piotroski F
3.3
Gross Margin
3.7
Current Ratio
7.7
Cash-burning: FCF -33% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns
GatesA.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 25d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
77 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $17.64Resistance $21.50

Price Targets

$20
$21
A.Upside+5.4%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-26.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (25d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FLGT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.83; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Prior stop was $20.07. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FLGT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.07 (-1.5% upside). Prior stop was $20.07. Stop-loss: $20.07.

What are the risks of investing in FLGT?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina; Target reached (-26.5% upside); Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).

Is FLGT overvalued or undervalued?

Fulgent Genetics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FLGT?

6 analysts cover FLGT with a consensus score of 2.2/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Fulgent Genetics, Inc. do?Fulgent Genetics operates a laboratory services business providing anatomic pathology, precision diagnostics,...

Fulgent Genetics operates a laboratory services business providing anatomic pathology, precision diagnostics, next-generation sequencing, and BioPharma testing services, alongside Fulgent Pharma, a therapeutic development unit advancing nanoencapsulated cancer drug candidates FID-007 and FID-022. Laboratory customers pay through insurance, institutional, or direct patient-pay channels, and one aggregated customer contributed $70.8 million, or 22% of total revenue, in 2025.

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