Despite high-quality business fundamentals including a 38% return on equity and a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9, the stock faces a confirmed death cross, two earnings misses in the last four quarters, negative risk/reward geometry, and a single-commodity concentration risk in aluminum cans — creating a cautious near-term setup.
Thesis pillars
- Technical Structural Headwinds→Stable
- High Quality Core Business→Stable
- Earnings Delivery Concerns→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.08: Risk below floor (2.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.83; Below long-term trend.
National Beverage Corp. develops and markets a portfolio of sparkling waters (LaCroix), juices (Everfresh, Mr. Pure), energy drinks (Rip It), and carbonated soft drinks (Shasta, Faygo), sold primarily in the United States through take-home, convenience, and food-service... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.08: Risk below floor (2.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.83; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About National Beverage Corp.
About National Beverage Corp.
National Beverage built its portfolio around LaCroix Sparkling Water, described in its own filings as the company's most significant brand, alongside Power+ Brands Rip It, Everfresh, and Mr. Pure and legacy carbonated soft drinks Shasta and Faygo. The company manufactures nearly all of this portfolio in the United States -- its primary market focus -- across twelve vertically integrated production facilities and employed approximately 1,681 people as of May 3, 2025.
National Beverage earns revenue through direct retail volume rather than franchising, running a vertically integrated model in which twelve Company-owned facilities handle procurement, flavor and concentrate formulation, and production, avoiding reliance on independent third-party bottlers. Products reach retailers through three channels -- take-home (grocery, club, mass-merchandise, and e-commerce), convenience, and food-service -- using a hybrid of warehouse distribution and a Company-owned direct-store-delivery fleet supplemented by independent distributors. Key inputs include aluminum, resin, corn, linerboard, water, and fruit juice, several of which are commodity-priced and subject to tariff and weather-driven cost swings that the company partially hedges with derivative instruments. Rather than costly national advertising, National Beverage leans on social media, regional sponsorships, and in-store 'BrandED' ambassadors to build loyalty for brands such as LaCroix and Faygo, competing against much larger rivals including The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, and Keurig Dr Pepper that command greater financial and marketing resources.
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A distinct exposure worth separating from the general commodity discussion is packaging concentration: more than 80% of National Beverage's products ship in aluminum cans, and the 10-K flags recent changes in trade policy and increased or threatened tariffs on imported goods as a specific driver of raw-material cost volatility. Because the company says it may be limited in its ability to pass higher aluminum, resin, or corn syrup costs through to retail customers whose purchasing power has grown through consolidation, a sustained tariff escalation could compress margins even if unit volume holds steady, particularly for value-priced CSD lines like Shasta and Faygo that compete most directly on price.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
From National Beverage Corp.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 5, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — National Beverage Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS NATIONAL BEVERAGE ($FIZZ) Releases Q4 2026 Earnings, Stock Rises - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS National Beverage (FIZZ) Reports FY26 Revenue and Celebrates Mil - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Enterprise value to EBIT forward of National Beverage Corp. – NASDAQ:FIZZ - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Price to sales forward of National Beverage Corp. – NASDAQ:FIZZ - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Price to earnings forward of National Beverage Corp. – NASDAQ:FIZZ - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:26Z.
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Thesis
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Quality Signals
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Volatile — 5.2% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Revenue shrinking — -5.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.08: Risk below floor (2.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.83; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $31.00. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $37.44 (+12.3% upside). Prior stop was $31.00. Stop-loss: $31.00.
Target reached (-15.8% upside); Risk below floor (2.0 < 3.0).
National Beverage Corp. trades at a P/E of 17.0 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
7 analysts cover FIZZ with a consensus score of 2.1/5. Average price target: $33.
What does National Beverage Corp. do?National Beverage Corp. develops and markets a portfolio of sparkling waters (LaCroix), juices (Everfresh, Mr. Pure),...
National Beverage Corp. develops and markets a portfolio of sparkling waters (LaCroix), juices (Everfresh, Mr. Pure), energy drinks (Rip It), and carbonated soft drinks (Shasta, Faygo), sold primarily in the United States through take-home, convenience, and food-service channels. The company operates twelve vertically integrated production facilities across the continental U.S., controlling flavor and concentrate formulation, canning and bottling, and distribution rather than relying on independent bottlers, and employed approximately 1,681 people as of May 3, 2025.