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FIZZNational Beverage Corp.Sell4.9·$31.31-0.06%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Despite high-quality business fundamentals including a 38% return on equity and a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9, the stock faces a confirmed death cross, two earnings misses in the last four quarters, negative risk/reward geometry, and a single-commodity concentration risk in aluminum cans — creating a cautious near-term setup.

Thesis pillars

  • Technical Structural HeadwindsDeteriorating
  • High Quality Core BusinessStable
  • Earnings Delivery ConcernsStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityShortModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $31.31 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

National Beverage Corp. produces and distributes a portfolio of sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated soft drinks, led by its LaCroix sparkling water brand along with Rip It energy drinks, Everfresh/Mr. Pure juices, and Shasta/Faygo carbonated soft drinks. The... Read more

$31.31-10.4% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#13 of 13 Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.62%
Stop $29.57Target $32.33(resistance)A.R:R -1.9:1
Analyst target$33.00+5.4%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $31.31 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About National Beverage Corp.

About National Beverage Corp.

National Beverage's portfolio spans Power+ Brands — LaCroix sparkling water, Rip It energy drinks, Clear Fruit, and Everfresh/Mr. Pure juices — alongside carbonated soft drinks Shasta and Faygo, brands with more than a century of consumer loyalty. LaCroix is the number one premium domestic sparkling water brand in the United States, the company's primary market. National Beverage operates twelve vertically integrated production facilities across the continental U.S.

National Beverage earns revenue from branded beverage sales through three distribution channels — take-home (grocery, club, mass-merchandiser, and e-commerce), convenience, and food-service — using a hybrid model that combines warehouse distribution with its own direct-store-delivery fleet and independent distributors. The company controls its supply chain through vertical integration, crafting a substantial portion of its own flavors and concentrates and producing both canned and bottled formats at all twelve facilities, which it says gives it more responsive quality control and faster time-to-market than competitors dependent on independent third-party bottlers. Key raw materials — aluminum cans, plastic bottles, high-fructose corn syrup, corrugated packaging, and juice concentrates — are commodity-priced and sourced from multiple suppliers, with the company occasionally locking in multi-year supply agreements and using derivatives to partially hedge input costs. National Beverage competes against much larger rivals including The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Keurig Dr. Pepper, and Nestlé, differentiating on flavor variety, packaging innovation, and regional brand loyalty rather than national advertising spend.

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National Beverage faces an emerging regulatory risk specific to how its products are formulated and subsidized: the 10-K flags recent proposals to phase out synthetic dyes from the U.S. food supply and to remove sweetened beverages from the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, either of which could raise costs or cut demand for parts of its portfolio — though the company notes LaCroix, its largest brand, is not expected to be affected since it already uses zero sweeteners and no artificial dyes. That distinction underscores a structural tension in the portfolio: LaCroix's 'Healthy Transformation' positioning is largely insulated from anti-sugar and anti-dye policy shifts that could instead pressure the company's carbonated soft drink brands, Shasta and Faygo, which still rely on traditional formulations.

See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic

From National Beverage Corp.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Sep 10, 202627d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.8
P/E (Fwd)15.3
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA10.4
Profit Mgn15.6%
ROE34.0%
Rev Growth-5.3%
Beta0.76
DividendNone
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.21bearish
IV79%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -5.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.2
Earnings Growth
2.7
Declining revenue: -5%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.7
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/2M

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.2
Volume
0.6
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Obv
6.7
Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R -1.9=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 27d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.07Resistance $32.99

Price Targets

$30
$32
A.Upside-10.4%
A.R:R-1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.4% upside)
! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-10 (27d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FIZZ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $31.31 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $29.57. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FIZZ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.33 (-10.4% upside). Prior stop was $29.57. Stop-loss: $29.57.

What are the risks of investing in FIZZ?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is FIZZ overvalued or undervalued?

National Beverage Corp. trades at a P/E of 15.8 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FIZZ?

7 analysts cover FIZZ with a consensus score of 2.1/5. Average price target: $33.

What does National Beverage Corp. do?National Beverage Corp. produces and distributes a portfolio of sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated...

National Beverage Corp. produces and distributes a portfolio of sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated soft drinks, led by its LaCroix sparkling water brand along with Rip It energy drinks, Everfresh/Mr. Pure juices, and Shasta/Faygo carbonated soft drinks. The company operates twelve vertically integrated production facilities across the continental U.S., its primary market, and employed approximately 1,681 people as of May 3, 2025, with 384 covered by collective bargaining agreements.

Related stocks: COCO (The Vita Coco Company, Inc.) · COKE (Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.) · AKO-A (Embotelladora Andina S.A.) · KOF (Coca Cola Femsa S.A.B. de C.V.) · PRMB (Primo Brands Corporation)
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