Despite high-quality business fundamentals including a 38% return on equity and a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9, the stock faces a confirmed death cross, two earnings misses in the last four quarters, negative risk/reward geometry, and a single-commodity concentration risk in aluminum cans — creating a cautious near-term setup.
Thesis pillars
- Technical Structural Headwinds↓Deteriorating
- High Quality Core Business→Stable
- Earnings Delivery Concerns→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $31.31 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).
National Beverage Corp. produces and distributes a portfolio of sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated soft drinks, led by its LaCroix sparkling water brand along with Rip It energy drinks, Everfresh/Mr. Pure juices, and Shasta/Faygo carbonated soft drinks. The... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $31.31 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About National Beverage Corp.
About National Beverage Corp.
National Beverage's portfolio spans Power+ Brands — LaCroix sparkling water, Rip It energy drinks, Clear Fruit, and Everfresh/Mr. Pure juices — alongside carbonated soft drinks Shasta and Faygo, brands with more than a century of consumer loyalty. LaCroix is the number one premium domestic sparkling water brand in the United States, the company's primary market. National Beverage operates twelve vertically integrated production facilities across the continental U.S.
National Beverage earns revenue from branded beverage sales through three distribution channels — take-home (grocery, club, mass-merchandiser, and e-commerce), convenience, and food-service — using a hybrid model that combines warehouse distribution with its own direct-store-delivery fleet and independent distributors. The company controls its supply chain through vertical integration, crafting a substantial portion of its own flavors and concentrates and producing both canned and bottled formats at all twelve facilities, which it says gives it more responsive quality control and faster time-to-market than competitors dependent on independent third-party bottlers. Key raw materials — aluminum cans, plastic bottles, high-fructose corn syrup, corrugated packaging, and juice concentrates — are commodity-priced and sourced from multiple suppliers, with the company occasionally locking in multi-year supply agreements and using derivatives to partially hedge input costs. National Beverage competes against much larger rivals including The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Keurig Dr. Pepper, and Nestlé, differentiating on flavor variety, packaging innovation, and regional brand loyalty rather than national advertising spend.
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National Beverage faces an emerging regulatory risk specific to how its products are formulated and subsidized: the 10-K flags recent proposals to phase out synthetic dyes from the U.S. food supply and to remove sweetened beverages from the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, either of which could raise costs or cut demand for parts of its portfolio — though the company notes LaCroix, its largest brand, is not expected to be affected since it already uses zero sweeteners and no artificial dyes. That distinction underscores a structural tension in the portfolio: LaCroix's 'Healthy Transformation' positioning is largely insulated from anti-sugar and anti-dye policy shifts that could instead pressure the company's carbonated soft drink brands, Shasta and Faygo, which still rely on traditional formulations.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
From National Beverage Corp.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — National Beverage Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS NATIONAL BEVERAGE ($FIZZ) Releases Q4 2026 Earnings, Stock Rises - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS National Beverage (FIZZ) Reports FY26 Revenue and Celebrates Mil - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Enterprise value to EBIT forward of National Beverage Corp. – NASDAQ:FIZZ - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Price to sales forward of National Beverage Corp. – NASDAQ:FIZZ - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Price to earnings forward of National Beverage Corp. – NASDAQ:FIZZ - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-08-15T10:44:19Z.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -5.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $31.31 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $29.57. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $32.33 (-10.4% upside). Prior stop was $29.57. Stop-loss: $29.57.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.
National Beverage Corp. trades at a P/E of 15.8 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
7 analysts cover FIZZ with a consensus score of 2.1/5. Average price target: $33.
What does National Beverage Corp. do?National Beverage Corp. produces and distributes a portfolio of sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated...
National Beverage Corp. produces and distributes a portfolio of sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated soft drinks, led by its LaCroix sparkling water brand along with Rip It energy drinks, Everfresh/Mr. Pure juices, and Shasta/Faygo carbonated soft drinks. The company operates twelve vertically integrated production facilities across the continental U.S., its primary market, and employed approximately 1,681 people as of May 3, 2025, with 384 covered by collective bargaining agreements.