Despite high-quality business fundamentals including a 38% return on equity and a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9, the stock faces a confirmed death cross, two earnings misses in the last four quarters, negative risk/reward geometry, and a single-commodity concentration risk in aluminum cans — creating a cautious near-term setup.
Thesis pillars
- Technical Structural Headwinds↑Improving
- High Quality Core Business→Stable
- Earnings Delivery Concerns→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jul 1, 2026· older than 90 days
National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $37.65 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: aluminum cans packaging (80.0%).
National Beverage makes sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks and, to a lesser extent, carbonated soft drinks, led by LaCroix, which it calls its most significant brand, plus Rip It, Everfresh, Shasta and Faygo. It sells mainly in the United States from twelve company... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $37.65 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: aluminum cans packaging (80.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About National Beverage Corp.
About National Beverage Corp.
National Beverage Corp. sells a portfolio of Power+ Brands — LaCroix sparkling water, Rip It energy drinks, and Everfresh and Mr. Pure juices — alongside carbonated soft drinks Shasta and Faygo, manufactured at twelve vertically integrated production facilities near major U.S. metropolitan markets. The company's primary market focus is the United States, and as of May 3, 2025 it employed approximately 1,681 people, 384 of whom were covered by collective bargaining agreements.
National Beverage earns revenue from wholesale sales of its beverage brands, distributed through three channels — take-home (grocery, club, and mass-merchandise retailers, largely via warehouse distribution), convenience (gas stations and smaller accounts via direct-store delivery), and food-service (hospitals, schools, and military bases through specialized distributors). Vertical integration extends from crafting flavors and concentrates in-house through bottling and canning at Company-owned facilities, an approach the company positions against competitors that rely on independent third-party bottlers. Raw materials — aluminum, resin, corn syrup, linerboard, and juice concentrates — are sourced from several suppliers rather than any single one, though a significant portion are commodity-linked and subject to worldwide price swings that the company partially hedges with derivative financial instruments. LaCroix holds the top position in the premium domestic sparkling water category, while Shasta and Faygo compete regionally against larger rivals including The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Keurig Dr. Pepper, and Nestlé.
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National Beverage flags a regulatory risk distinct from ordinary commodity costs: recent proposals to phase out synthetic dyes from the U.S. food supply and to remove many sweetened beverages from the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program could raise costs or reduce demand for some of its products, though the company states LaCroix sparkling water is not expected to be affected. Separately, ongoing consolidation among retail customers has left the company with fewer, larger buyers who hold more purchasing power, constraining its ability to raise list prices even as commodity inputs such as aluminum and corn-derived sweeteners fluctuate with worldwide markets.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
From National Beverage Corp.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
No fresh coverage since Sep 11, 2026
Recent Developments — National Beverage Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS National Beverage Posts Downbeat Q1 Results, Joins Zumiez, Adobe And Other Big Stocks Moving Lower In Friday’s Pre-Marke — benzinga Sep 11, 2026 negative
- NEWS National Beverage Stock Stumbles After Pre-Earnings Surge - TipRanks — TipRanks Sep 10, 2026 positive
- NEWS National Beverage (NASDAQ:FIZZ) Issues Quarterly Earnings Results - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Sep 10, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Legal & General Group Plc Buys Shares of 51,470 National Beverage Corp. $FIZZ - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Sep 7, 2026 positive
- NEWS Bank of New York Mellon Corp Purchases New Holdings in National Beverage Corp. $FIZZ - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Sep 5, 2026 positive
Latest item Sep 11, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductLaCroix Sparkling Water10-K Item 1: 'LaCroix Sparkling Water, our most significant brand'
- HIGHCommodityaluminum cans packaging80%10-K Item 1: 'More than 80% of our products are sold in aluminum cans'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $37.65 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: aluminum cans packaging (80.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $35.37. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $26.35 reached (−30.0% from $37.65); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $35.37. Stop-loss: $35.37.
Concentration risk — Commodity: aluminum cans packaging (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away).
National Beverage Corp. trades at a P/E of 20.2 (forward 19.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
7 analysts rate FIZZ, with a consensus score of 2.1/5. 1 analysts publish price targets averaging $31.
What does National Beverage Corp. do?National Beverage makes sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks and, to a lesser extent, carbonated soft drinks, led by...
National Beverage makes sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks and, to a lesser extent, carbonated soft drinks, led by LaCroix, which it calls its most significant brand, plus Rip It, Everfresh, Shasta and Faygo. It sells mainly in the United States from twelve company production facilities, via warehouse delivery to retailers and direct-store delivery. Vertical integration of flavors, concentrates and bottling supports cost.