Despite high-quality business fundamentals including a 38% return on equity and a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9, the stock faces a confirmed death cross, two earnings misses in the last four quarters, negative risk/reward geometry, and a single-commodity concentration risk in aluminum cans — creating a cautious near-term setup.
Thesis pillars
- Technical Structural Headwinds→Stable
- High Quality Core Business→Stable
- Earnings Delivery Concerns→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.30: Risk below floor (2.3 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.60; Negative price momentum.
National Beverage Corp. makes and markets a portfolio of sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated soft drinks — led by LaCroix, Rip It, Shasta, and Faygo — sold primarily in the United States through take-home, convenience, and food-service channels. The company... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.30: Risk below floor (2.3 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.60; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 67d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About National Beverage Corp.
About National Beverage Corp.
LaCroix sparkling water leads National Beverage's Power+ Brands portfolio, which also includes Rip It energy drinks, Clear Fruit, and Everfresh juices, alongside legacy carbonated soft drink brands Shasta and Faygo, sold primarily across the United States through take-home, convenience, and food-service channels. The company operates twelve vertically integrated production facilities and employed approximately 1,681 people as of May 3, 2025, with 384 covered by collective bargaining agreements.
National Beverage earns revenue by selling directly to national retailers and smaller regional accounts through a hybrid warehouse and direct-store-delivery network across three channels, supplemented by vending machines and coolers placed at customer locations. Key inputs, including aluminum cans, plastic bottles, high-fructose corn syrup, corrugated packaging, and juice concentrates, are exposed to commodity price swings that the company partially manages through multi-year supply agreements and derivative financial instruments. The company competes against much larger rivals, including The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, and Keurig Dr Pepper, positioning LaCroix and its other Power+ Brands on flavor innovation and packaging rather than the national advertising spend those competitors can afford.
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National Beverage leans on rapid flavor and packaging turnover rather than price competition to defend share against the cola giants: the fiscal 2025 filing cites the LaCroix Sunshine flavor launched in summer 2025 and Strawberry Peach introduced in the back half of the fiscal year as recent additions to a 26-flavor LaCroix lineup, alongside Newsweek naming LaCroix one of its Most Trusted Brands in America for a third consecutive year in 2025. Because the company relies on internal development teams rather than higher-cost national advertising to seed these launches, a slowdown in new-flavor cadence would remove one of the few differentiators it has against larger competitors with far greater marketing budgets.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
From National Beverage Corp.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — National Beverage Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS NATIONAL BEVERAGE ($FIZZ) Releases Q4 2026 Earnings, Stock Rises - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS National Beverage (FIZZ) Reports FY26 Revenue and Celebrates Mil - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Enterprise value to EBIT forward of National Beverage Corp. – NASDAQ:FIZZ - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Price to sales forward of National Beverage Corp. – NASDAQ:FIZZ - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Price to earnings forward of National Beverage Corp. – NASDAQ:FIZZ - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-07-07T10:21:37Z.
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Thesis
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Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Volatile — 5.8% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Revenue shrinking — -5.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.30: Risk below floor (2.3 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.60; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $30.08. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $37.44 (+15.8% upside). Prior stop was $30.08. Stop-loss: $30.08.
Target reached (-13.3% upside); Risk below floor (2.3 < 3.0).
National Beverage Corp. trades at a P/E of 17.0 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
7 analysts cover FIZZ with a consensus score of 2.1/5. Average price target: $33.
What does National Beverage Corp. do?National Beverage Corp. makes and markets a portfolio of sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated soft...
National Beverage Corp. makes and markets a portfolio of sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated soft drinks — led by LaCroix, Rip It, Shasta, and Faygo — sold primarily in the United States through take-home, convenience, and food-service channels. The company operates twelve vertically integrated production facilities across the continental U.S., controlling its own flavor and concentrate formulation rather than relying on independent bottlers, and employed approximately 1,681 people as of May 3, 2025.