Despite high-quality business fundamentals including a 38% return on equity and a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9, the stock faces a confirmed death cross, two earnings misses in the last four quarters, negative risk/reward geometry, and a single-commodity concentration risk in aluminum cans — creating a cautious near-term setup.
Thesis pillars
- Technical Structural Headwinds↓Deteriorating
- High Quality Core Business→Stable
- Earnings Delivery Concerns→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.67 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3).
National Beverage Corp. develops, produces, and distributes sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated soft drinks under brands including LaCroix, Rip It, Shasta, and Faygo, primarily in the United States, from twelve vertically integrated production facilities.... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.67 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About National Beverage Corp.
About National Beverage Corp.
National Beverage's portfolio splits between its Power+ Brands — LaCroix sparkling water, Rip It energy drinks, and Everfresh and Mr. Pure juices — and its carbonated soft drink brands Shasta and Faygo, with LaCroix standing as the company's most significant single brand and the top-selling premium domestic sparkling water. The company operates twelve vertically integrated production facilities across the continental United States, its primary market, and employed approximately 1,681 people as of May 3, 2025.
National Beverage sells nationally branded volume rather than private-label or contract-manufactured product, distributing through three channels — take-home (grocery, club, mass-merchandiser, and e-commerce accounts, served mainly via warehouse distribution), convenience (served by its own direct-store-delivery fleet and independent distributors), and food-service (hospitals, schools, and military bases via specialized distributors). Production runs through vertical integration: the company crafts a substantial portion of its own flavors and concentrates and purchases the remaining raw materials — including aluminum, resin, corn, linerboard, and fruit juice — from multiple suppliers, using multi-year supply agreements and derivative instruments to partially hedge commodity price swings. Innovation runs on a fast internal cycle: concept creation, packaging, and design stay in-house, which the company says speeds time-to-market versus competitors reliant on independent third-party bottlers, and recent launches include new LaCroix flavors such as Sunshine and Strawberry Peach and Zero Sugar variants of Shasta and Rip It.
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National Beverage's 10-K flags a structural shift in bargaining power rather than a single named retailer risk: the filing states that its retail customer base has been consolidating over many years, leaving fewer customers with greater purchasing power that can limit the company's ability to raise prices with certain accounts. That dynamic compounds a packaging exposure specific to its aluminum-can-heavy portfolio — more than 80% of National Beverage's products ship in aluminum cans — since retailer pricing pressure and aluminum commodity costs can squeeze margins from both directions at once, a risk the filing does not quantify by customer name or percentage.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
From National Beverage Corp.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-26Recent Developments — National Beverage Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS FIZZ stock edges lower as National Beverage faces cautious earnings expectations - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS negative
- NEWS FIZZ stock edges lower as National Beverage faces cautious earnings expectations - ad-hoc-news.de — ad-hoc-news.de negative
- NEWS National Beverage earnings up next: Can LaCroix regain volume growth? By Investing.com - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada neutral
- NEWS National Beverage earnings up next: Can LaCroix regain volume growth? By Investing.com - Investing.com India — Investing.com India neutral
- NEWS National Beverage earnings up next: Can LaCroix regain volume growth? By Investing.com - Investing.com Nigeria — Investing.com Nigeria neutral
Generated 2026-09-26T04:42:00Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductLaCroix10-K Item 1: 'LaCroix Sparkling Water, our most significant brand, has uniquely redefined the sparkling water category'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.67 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $28.10. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $32.28 (-11.2% upside). Prior stop was $28.10. Stop-loss: $28.10.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak growth.
National Beverage Corp. trades at a P/E of 16.5 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
7 analysts cover FIZZ with a consensus score of 2.1/5. Average price target: $31.
What does National Beverage Corp. do?National Beverage Corp. develops, produces, and distributes sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated...
National Beverage Corp. develops, produces, and distributes sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated soft drinks under brands including LaCroix, Rip It, Shasta, and Faygo, primarily in the United States, from twelve vertically integrated production facilities. LaCroix, the company's most significant brand, leads the premium domestic sparkling water category; National Beverage sells through take-home, convenience, and food-service channels and employed about 1,681 people as of May 3, 2025.