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FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.Sell5.9·$8.07+0.50%
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Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. (FBRT) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.07 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (4); Negative momentum.

Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc., a real estate finance company, originates and manages a diversified portfolio of commercial real estate debt investments through a REIT structure in the United States and internationally. The company operates through Real Estate Debt Business;... Read more

$8.07+36.9% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#7 of 24 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield13.75%Payout248.04%
Stop $7.59Target $11.05(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 6.3:1
Analyst target$13.00+61.1%4 analysts
$11.05our TP
$8.07price
$13.00mean
$16

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.07 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (4); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202625d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 37%
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (4)
Negative momentum
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.8
P/E (Fwd)6.7
Mkt Cap$621M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn24.6%
ROE4.6%
Rev Growth6.1%
Beta1.09
Dividend13.75%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.00bearish
IV120%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.6
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.3
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 6.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 25d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $7.78Resistance $8.46

Price Targets

$8
$11
A.Upside+36.9%
A.R:R6.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (25d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FBRT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.07 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (4); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Prior stop was $7.59. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FBRT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.05 (+36.9% upside). Prior stop was $7.59. Stop-loss: $7.59.

What are the risks of investing in FBRT?

Consecutive earnings misses (4); Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Is FBRT overvalued or undervalued?

Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.8 (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FBRT?

11 analysts cover FBRT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. do?Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc., a real estate finance company, originates and manages a diversified portfolio of...

Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc., a real estate finance company, originates and manages a diversified portfolio of commercial real estate debt investments through a REIT structure in the United States and internationally. The company operates through Real Estate Debt Business; Agency Business; Commercial Real Estate Conduit Business; and Real Estate Owned Business segments. The Real Estate Debt Business focuses on originating, acquiring, and asset managing commercial real estate debt investments, including first mortgages, subordinate mortgages, mezzanine loans, and participations in such loans and focuses on investing in and asset managing real estate securities. The Agency Business focuses on originating, selling, and servicing loans under programs offered by government-sponsored enterprises and agencies. The Commercial Real Estate Conduit Business is focused on generating risk-adjusted returns by originating and selling fixed-rate commercial real estate loans. The Real Estate Owned Business represents real estate acquired by the company through foreclosure, deed-in-lieu of foreclosure, and purchase. It also originates conduit loans. Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. was formerly known as Benefit Street Partners Realty Trust, Inc. and changed its name to Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. in October 2021. Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

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