Skip to main content
FFord Motor CompanySell4.6·$14.74+2.61%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Ford operates with deeply impaired fundamentals — free cash flow is negative at roughly 1% of revenue, there is no discernible competitive moat, and price momentum is clearly negative — while a high dividend yield is flagged as unsafe; despite about 18% room to the next resistance level, the structural quality deficit and momentum headwinds require meaningful improvement before the risk profile justifies new exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Structural Quality DeficitStable
  • Negative Price MomentumDeteriorating
  • Earnings Delivery VarianceStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Ford Motor Company (F) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Earnings in 1 day (2026-07-28). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.74: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro,... Read more

$14.74-8.1% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#13 of 17 Auto Manufacturers
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-3.93%
IncomeYield4.24%(5y avg 5.76%)Payout64.10%
Stop $13.92Target $14.57(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$15.05+2.1%20 analysts
$14.57our TP
$14.74price
$15.05mean
$11
$20

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.74: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, news boost analyst cluster(6), semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-27
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 20261d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Recent Analyst Cluster(6) detected in news
Risks
Target reached (-8.1% upside)
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)7.9
Mkt Cap$57.3B
EV/EBITDA25.7
Profit Mgn-3.2%
ROE-14.8%
Rev Growth6.4%
Beta1.83
Dividend4.24%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C1.04bearish
IV62%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
0.2
Operating Margin
2.3
Moat
3.6
Current Ratio
4.3
Piotroski F
5.6
Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.8
Gap
4.0
52w Position
6.6

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.3
Growth Rank
4.1
Value Rank
4.7
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(6)SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.22Resistance $14.87

Price Targets

$14
$15
A.Upside-8.1%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is F stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.74: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $13.92. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the F stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.57 (-8.1% upside). Prior stop was $13.92. Stop-loss: $13.92.

What are the risks of investing in F?

Target reached (-8.1% upside); Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).

Is F overvalued or undervalued?

Ford Motor Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 7.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about F?

30 analysts cover F with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $15.

What does Ford Motor Company do?Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and...

Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit segments. The company sells Ford and Lincoln internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, service parts, accessories, and digital services for retail customers; develops EV and digital vehicle technologies, and software; and provides telematics and EV charging solutions. It also sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments. In addition, it engages in vehicle-related financing and leasing activities to and through automotive dealers. Further, the company provides retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail and commercial customers, such as leasing companies, government entities, daily rental companies, and fleet customers. Additionally, it offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and enhance dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs. Ford Motor Company was incorporated in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.

Related stocks: NIO (NIO Inc.) · VFS (VinFast Auto Ltd.) · TM (Toyota Motor Corporation) · HMC (Honda Motor Company, Ltd.) · XPEV (XPeng Inc.)
Home Stocks F

Latest news

Latest News

Benzinga3h agoAnalyst
Benzinga3h agoAnalyst
Benzinga4h agoAnalyst
Benzinga4d ago
Benzinga4d agoProduct
Benzinga4d agoProduct
Benzinga5d ago
Benzinga5d ago
Benzinga5d ago
Benzinga6d ago
Benzinga6d agoLegal
Benzinga7d agoProduct
Benzinga7d ago
Benzinga8d ago
Benzinga10d agoAnalyst
Benzinga10d agoProduct
Benzinga12d ago
Benzinga13d agoAnalyst
Benzinga14d ago
Benzinga14d ago
Loading more...