Eagle Materials carries solid price momentum and a return on equity of approximately 29%, but the stock is trading within 1.4% of the analyst resistance target with an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio, free cash flow conversion flagged as a red flag at only 24% of net income, and a geographic revenue concentration of 65% in 10 states that amplifies exposure to regional construction cycles.
Thesis pillars
- Asymmetry Exhausted At Resistance→Stable
- Fcf Earnings Quality Gap→Stable
- Geographic Concentration Cyclical Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Eagle Materials Inc (EXP) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Basic Materials · Building Materials
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $220.15 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: 10-state revenue concentration (65.0%).
Eagle Materials manufactures cement, gypsum wallboard, recycled paperboard, and concrete/aggregates through more than 70 facilities in 21 states, serving U.S. infrastructure and residential construction. The company recorded record revenue of $2.3 billion in fiscal 2026, with... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $220.15 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: 10-state revenue concentration (65.0%). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
About Eagle Materials Inc
About Eagle Materials Inc
Eagle Materials recorded record revenue of $2.3 billion in fiscal 2026, split across two sectors: Heavy Materials — comprising Cement and Concrete/Aggregates segments, whose primary end market is infrastructure — and Light Materials, comprising Gypsum Wallboard and Recycled Paperboard, whose primary end market is residential construction. The company operates more than 70 facilities across 21 states and employs approximately 2,800 people, holding roughly 6% of total U.S. clinker capacity across eight cement plants plus two slag grinding facilities.
Eagle Materials earns revenue by selling commodity building materials in regional markets where transportation economics create local pricing power: cement's low value-to-weight ratio limits truck shipments to a 150-mile radius per plant and rail to roughly 300 miles, reducing competition from distant producers. The company's heartland position — away from coastal import terminals — provides some insulation from imports, which represented approximately 23% of U.S. cement consumption in calendar 2025. A $330.0 million project to modernize and expand the gypsum wallboard facility in Duke, Oklahoma targets a 25% capacity increase to 1.5 billion square feet, expected to complete in the second half of calendar 2027. Eagle Materials operates the Buda, Texas cement plant through a 50% joint venture with HM Southeast Cement LLC, a subsidiary of Heidelberg Materials. Revenue is seasonal, with peak activity from April through November.
Show full overview
Eagle Materials is investing over $400 million to modernize the Laramie, Wyoming cement plant, targeting a 50% capacity increase to approximately 1.2 million tons and a 25% reduction in operating costs, with start-up expected in late calendar 2026. The capital-intensive nature of cement production makes earnings sensitive to volume changes. Separately, the EPA's Good Neighbor Plan (currently stayed) and potential revisions to the PM2.5 NAAQS may require significant capital expenditures at certain facilities, depending on the timing and scope of final rulemaking.
See also: Basic Materials · Building Materials
From Eagle Materials Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Eagle Materials Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Eagle Materials price target raised to $246 from $240 at Wells Fargo - TipRanks — TipRanks positive
- NEWS eXp World (EXPI) Research Report - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS DA Davidson cuts eXp World Holdings stock price target on agent count decline - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS Earnings Preview: Eagle Materials (EXP) Q4 Earnings Expected to Decline - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS eXp World Holdings, Inc. (AGNT) Live Share Price, Invest From India - INDmoney — INDmoney neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T06:30:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographic10-state revenue concentration65%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 65% of our total revenue...is generated in 10 states: Colorado, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Texas'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-21Item 5.02MEDIUMSVP/Chief Accounting Officer William R. Devlin retiring June 1, 2026 after 20+ years at the Company. Samuel M. Guzman Jr. named successor CAO effective June 1, 2026; previously CAO at Beacon Roofing Supply (2020-2025).SEC filing →
- 2026-05-28Item 5.02LOWCompensation Committee approved annual long-term incentive equity awards (PSUs, RSUs, performance-vesting and time-vesting stock options) to named executive officers including CEO Michael R. Haack and CFO D. Craig Kesler. Performance period ends fiscal 2029.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $220.15 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: 10-state revenue concentration (65.0%). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $204.74. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $240.62 (+9.3% upside). Prior stop was $204.74. Stop-loss: $204.74.
Concentration risk — Geographic: 10-state revenue concentration (65.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.
Eagle Materials Inc trades at a P/E of 16.7 (forward 14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover EXP with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $224.
What does Eagle Materials Inc do?Eagle Materials manufactures cement, gypsum wallboard, recycled paperboard, and concrete/aggregates through more than...
Eagle Materials manufactures cement, gypsum wallboard, recycled paperboard, and concrete/aggregates through more than 70 facilities in 21 states, serving U.S. infrastructure and residential construction. The company recorded record revenue of $2.3 billion in fiscal 2026, with approximately 65% generated in 10 states. Owned raw material reserves supporting at least 25 years of production at each facility underpin its low-cost position.