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EROEro Copper Corp.Hold6.4·$33.80-1.66%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Ero Copper has exceptional underlying fundamentals — 110% revenue growth, 32% margins, a wide economic moat, and a strong financial-health score — but the stock has run to its technical ceiling with only 4.1% headroom to the price target at an unfavorable 0.6-to-1 risk/reward; an extremely elevated put/call ratio of roughly 11 signals significant hedging demand, and free cash flow converts at only 16% of net income — a red flag suggesting reported earnings are substantially overstating actual cash generation.

Thesis pillars

  • Extreme Put Call Bearish SignalImproving
  • Price At Target No AsymmetryStable
  • Fcf Cash Conversion Red FlagStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) Stock Analysis

HoldGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Copper

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $33.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Ero Copper Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. Its flagship asset includes Caraíba operations that comprise the production and sale of copper concentrates located in Bahia State, Brazil, as well as gold and silver produced... Read more

$33.80-9.8% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#1 of 7 Copper
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.31%
Stop $31.43Target $36.11(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$35.87+6.1%3 analysts
$36.11our TP
$33.80price
$35.87mean
$33
$41

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $33.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202681d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Earnings estimates trending UP
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.2
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA7.9
Profit Mgn29.8%
ROE30.8%
Rev Growth73.9%
Beta1.59
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV70%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $24.41Resistance $36.85

Price Targets

$31
$36
A.Upside-9.8%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ERO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $33.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $36.11 (+6.8%), stop $31.43 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ERO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.11 (-9.8% upside). Target $36.11 (+6.8%), stop $31.43 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $31.43.

What are the risks of investing in ERO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is ERO overvalued or undervalued?

Ero Copper Corp. trades at a P/E of 12.2 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ERO?

21 analysts cover ERO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $36.

What does Ero Copper Corp. do?Ero Copper Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. Its flagship...

Ero Copper Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. Its flagship asset includes Caraíba operations that comprise the production and sale of copper concentrates located in Bahia State, Brazil, as well as gold and silver produced and sold as by-products. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Related stocks: TECK (Teck Resources Ltd) · HBM (Hudbay Minerals Inc.) · TGB (Trekor Metals Limited) · IE (Ivanhoe Electric Inc.)
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