Ero Copper has exceptional underlying fundamentals — 110% revenue growth, 32% margins, a wide economic moat, and a strong financial-health score — but the stock has run to its technical ceiling with only 4.1% headroom to the price target at an unfavorable 0.6-to-1 risk/reward; an extremely elevated put/call ratio of roughly 11 signals significant hedging demand, and free cash flow converts at only 16% of net income — a red flag suggesting reported earnings are substantially overstating actual cash generation.
Thesis pillars
- Extreme Put Call Bearish Signal↓Deteriorating
- Price At Target No Asymmetry↑Improving
- Fcf Cash Conversion Red Flag↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days
Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) Stock Analysis
Sector Rotation edge
Basic Materials · Copper
Wait for pullback to $29.23. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $30.82. Engine's entry $29.23 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Elevated risk factors.
Ero Copper Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. Its flagship asset includes Caraíba operations that comprise the production and sale of copper concentrates located in Bahia State, Brazil, as well as gold and silver produced... Read more
Wait for pullback to $29.23. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $30.82. Engine's entry $29.23 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Value play: 56% MoS with quality 7.7. (held at prior verdict — engine reading is near the momentum/RSI threshold; will commit on clearer signal). Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 9/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 119d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=basic materials 2/3). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — Ero Copper Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS Ero Copper raised at Scotiabank as free cash flow inflection gains momentum (ERO:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Nov 4, 2026 positive
- NEWS Ero Copper: A Discount Worth Buying (Conditions May Apply) (NYSE:ERO) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Nov 4, 2026 positive
- NEWS Ero Copper Q3 Earnings Call Highlights - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS A Look at Ero Copper Corp (ERO) After 4.4% Gain -- GF Value $38. - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Nov 4, 2026 positive
- NEWS A Look at Ero Copper Corp (ERO) After 4.4% Gain -- GF Value $38.31 vs Price $30.44 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Nov 4, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:29:00Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 ceiling hits
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $29.23. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $30.82. Engine's entry $29.23 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Value play: 56% MoS with quality 7.7. (held at prior verdict — engine reading is near the momentum/RSI threshold; will commit on clearer signal). Target $36.04 (+16.9%), stop $27.52 (−12.0%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $36.04 (+16.9% upside). Target $36.04 (+16.9%), stop $27.52 (−12.0%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $27.52.
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Elevated risk factors.
Ero Copper Corp. trades at a P/E of 8.3 (forward 6.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
20 analysts rate ERO, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 3 analysts publish price targets averaging $42.
What does Ero Copper Corp. do?Ero Copper Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. Its flagship...
Ero Copper Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. Its flagship asset includes Caraíba operations that comprise the production and sale of copper concentrates located in Bahia State, Brazil, as well as gold and silver produced and sold as by-products. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.