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EQHEquitable Holdings, Inc.Sell4.3·$48.77+1.59%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Equitable Holdings screens attractively on valuation — with a forward price-to-earnings of 5.1 times and a near-zero price-to-growth ratio — and shows improving price momentum, but the business is generating deeply negative free cash flow equivalent to 82% of revenue, revenue is declining at 8% year-over-year, and three of the last four earnings reports have missed estimates, making the cheap multiple more likely a value trap than an opportunity.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation SurfaceStable
  • Deep Negative Free Cash FlowStable
  • Persistent Earnings Miss PatternImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Equitable Holdings, Inc. (EQH) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.77: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.40; Below-average business quality.

Equitable Holdings provides retirement, asset management, and wealth management through three franchises: Equitable (insurer), AllianceBernstein (global active asset manager), and Equitable Advisors (wealth management), with $1.1 trillion in assets under management and... Read more

$48.77+8.3% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#228 of 239 Asset Management
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-70.88%
IncomeYield2.40%(5y avg 2.39%)Payout76.74%
Stop $46.20Target $52.91(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$60.82+24.7%11 analysts
$52.91our TP
$48.77price
$60.82mean
$68

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.77: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.40; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Equitable Holdings, Inc.

About Equitable Holdings, Inc.

Equitable Holdings closed 2025 with $1.1 trillion in total assets under management and administration, including $866.9 billion managed by AllianceBernstein across institutional ($354.2 billion), retail ($356.4 billion), and private wealth ($156.3 billion) channels. Total Retirement first-year premiums and deposits reached $22.4 billion, with RILA products contributing $15.4 billion, up from $11.3 billion in 2023. EQH owns an approximate 68% economic interest in AB, a publicly traded master limited partnership on the NYSE.

Equitable Holdings earns revenue across three segments. The Retirement segment anchors the business with $174.9 billion in total account value as of December 31, 2025, composed of RILA products ($81.6 billion), traditional variable annuities ($47.8 billion), and tax-exempt products ($33.3 billion). Distribution of individual annuity products runs through Equitable Advisors (38% of first-year premiums in 2025) and third-party channels (62%), with no single third-party firm exceeding 10% of sales in 2025. The Asset Management segment — AB — generated $4.59 billion in total revenues in 2025 on $826.0 billion in average AUM, with advisory fees of $3.35 billion (base) plus $185 million in performance-based fees. AB experienced net long-term outflows of $(11.3) billion in 2025, compared with $(2.2) billion in 2024, driven by active equity net outflows of $(22.5) billion partially offset by alternatives and multi-asset inflows of $10.6 billion.

Show full overview

EQH's variable annuity and guaranteed minimum benefit products create asymmetric exposure to equity market and interest rate conditions simultaneously. While GMxB features accounted for approximately 1.3% of total account value as of December 31, 2025 — limiting immediate obligation risk — the broader RILA and variable annuity base of $174.9 billion may be affected by sustained equity market weakness. The 10-K notes that equity market declines increase GMxB obligation amounts and may raise hedging costs, while rapid rate increases could accelerate surrenders and withdrawals. EQH mitigates this through derivatives programs, but counterparty failures on those instruments could leave net exposure if collateral agreements do not fully offset losses.

See also: Financial Services · Asset Management

From Equitable Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-27

Recent Developments — Equitable Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-07-27T14:53:01Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 20268d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)5.4
Mkt Cap$13.1B
EV/EBITDA19.8
Profit Mgn-7.3%
ROE-13.5%
Rev Growth-7.6%
Beta1.09
Dividend2.40%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C5.40bearish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$28-43.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -7.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.6
Declining revenue: -8%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Unprofitable operations — net margin -7.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
2.5
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
8.0
Operating Margin
9.0
Cash-burning: FCF -82% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 8 daysYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.4
Growth Rank
2.3
Value Rank
9.8
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 8d<=14d (soft)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $43.50Resistance $50.03

Price Targets

$46
$53
A.Upside+8.3%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (8d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EQH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.77: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.40; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $46.20. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EQH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $52.91 (+8.3% upside). Prior stop was $46.20. Stop-loss: $46.20.

What are the risks of investing in EQH?

Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0).

Is EQH overvalued or undervalued?

Equitable Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 5.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EQH?

18 analysts cover EQH with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Equitable Holdings, Inc. do?Equitable Holdings provides retirement, asset management, and wealth management through three franchises: Equitable...

Equitable Holdings provides retirement, asset management, and wealth management through three franchises: Equitable (insurer), AllianceBernstein (global active asset manager), and Equitable Advisors (wealth management), with $1.1 trillion in assets under management and administration as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from fee income, investment income, and insurance premiums; AB managed $866.9 billion in AUM across institutional, retail, and private wealth channels.

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