Four consecutive quarters of extraordinary earnings beats — averaging 87% above consensus — paired with a forward multiple of 6.2x and 21% earnings growth create a compelling value-growth case; however, free cash flow is negative at -77% of net income and a 3.9x debt-to-equity ratio introduce meaningful financial fragility that keeps overall conviction cautious.
Thesis pillars
- High Leverage Financial Fragility→Stable
- Exceptional Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Deep Value With Strong Earnings Growth→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Credit Services
Sell if holding. At $90.61, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.3%; Near 52-week high (4.2% away).
Encore Capital Group purchases portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables at deep discounts to face value, managing them through MCM in the United States and Cabot in Europe and the United Kingdom. Revenue comes from collections on purchased portfolios and, through Cabot... Read more
Sell if holding. At $90.61, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.3%; Near 52-week high (4.2% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Encore Capital Group Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Encore Capital Group (ECPG) to Release Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Encore Capital Group (NASDAQ:ECPG) Rating Lowered to "Hold" at Zacks Research - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS ECPG Maintains Market Outperform -- Price Target Raised to $115 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Encore Capital Group (NASDAQ:ECPG) Price Target Raised to $115.00 - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Encore Capital Shareholders Approve Updated Incentive Plan - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States and United Kingdom10-K Item 1: 'portfolio purchasing and recovery in the United States ... in Europe and the United Kingdom. These are our primary operations'
- MEDIUMSupplierfew large sellers10-K Item 1A: 'A significant percentage of our portfolio purchases for any given fiscal quarter or year may be concentrated with a few large sellers'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-20Item 5.02LOWDirector Wendy Hannam notified company on March 18, 2026 she will not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. No disagreement with company cited. Will serve until Annual Meeting.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-20Item 5.03LOWBoard approved amended and restated bylaws on March 18, 2026, enhancing disclosure requirements for shareholder director nominations and Rule 14a-19 proxy compliance. Routine governance amendment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 ceiling hits
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $90.61, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.3%; Near 52-week high (4.2% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $84.83. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $96.33 (+6.3% upside). Prior stop was $84.83. Stop-loss: $84.83.
Thin upside margin: 6.3%; Near 52-week high (4.2% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5.
Encore Capital Group Inc trades at a P/E of 7.1 (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover ECPG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $113.
What does Encore Capital Group Inc do?Encore Capital Group purchases portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables at deep discounts to face value, managing...
Encore Capital Group purchases portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables at deep discounts to face value, managing them through MCM in the United States and Cabot in Europe and the United Kingdom. Revenue comes from collections on purchased portfolios and, through Cabot subsidiaries, debt servicing fees for non-performing loans in Europe.