Four consecutive quarters of extraordinary earnings beats — averaging 87% above consensus — paired with a forward multiple of 6.2x and 21% earnings growth create a compelling value-growth case; however, free cash flow is negative at -77% of net income and a 3.9x debt-to-equity ratio introduce meaningful financial fragility that keeps overall conviction cautious.
Thesis pillars
- High Leverage Financial Fragility→Stable
- Exceptional Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Deep Value With Strong Earnings Growth→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026· older than 90 days
Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Financial Services · Credit Services
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $99.83, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5.
Encore Capital Group purchases portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables at deep discounts to face value, managing them through MCM in the United States and Cabot in Europe and the United Kingdom. Revenue comes from collections on purchased portfolios and, through Cabot... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $99.83, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Encore Capital Group Inc
Latest news
- NEWS ECPG Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 466.80M USD - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Encore Capital (NASDAQ:ECPG) Breaks Higher: Can the Rally Last? - Kalkine Media — Kalkine Media Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Encore Capital Group (NASDAQ:ECPG) Stock Breaks Above 50-Day Moving Average - Here's What Happened - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Is Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) Overvalued After Q2 Earnings - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Aug 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Encore Capital Group (NASDAQ:ECPG) Surprises With Strong Q2 CY2026 - TradingView — TradingView Aug 5, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:44:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States and United Kingdom10-K Item 1: 'portfolio purchasing and recovery in the United States ... in Europe and the United Kingdom. These are our primary operations'
- MEDIUMSupplierfew large sellers10-K Item 1A: 'A significant percentage of our portfolio purchases for any given fiscal quarter or year may be concentrated with a few large sellers'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-20Item 5.02LOWDirector Wendy Hannam notified company on March 18, 2026 she will not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. No disagreement with company cited. Will serve until Annual Meeting.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-20Item 5.03LOWBoard approved amended and restated bylaws on March 18, 2026, enhancing disclosure requirements for shareholder director nominations and Rule 14a-19 proxy compliance. Routine governance amendment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $99.83, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Analyst target $99.45 reached (−0.4%), stop $93.51 (−6.8%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $99.45 reached (−0.4% from $99.83); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $99.45 reached (−0.4%), stop $93.51 (−6.8%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $93.51.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Negative momentum.
Encore Capital Group Inc trades at a P/E of 7.6 (forward 7.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
10 analysts rate ECPG, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 3 analysts publish price targets averaging $117.
What does Encore Capital Group Inc do?Encore Capital Group purchases portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables at deep discounts to face value, managing...
Encore Capital Group purchases portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables at deep discounts to face value, managing them through MCM in the United States and Cabot in Europe and the United Kingdom. Revenue comes from collections on purchased portfolios and, through Cabot subsidiaries, debt servicing fees for non-performing loans in Europe.