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Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $81.20 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5.

Encore Capital Group is an international specialty finance company purchasing defaulted consumer receivables at deep discounts and collecting on them through MCM (U.S. market leader) and Cabot Credit Management (one of Europe's largest credit management providers). Revenue... Read more

$81.20+1.6% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#6 of 28 Credit Services
Stop $76.10Target $82.17(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$96.67+19.0%3 analysts
$82.17our TP
$81.20price
$96.67mean
$100

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $81.20 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.5
P/E (Fwd)6.1
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA8.7
Profit Mgn14.5%
ROE29.5%
Rev Growth78.3%
Beta1.27
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C11.17bearish
IV75%elevated
Max Pain$40-50.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierfew large sellers
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant percentage of our portfolio purchases for any given fiscal quarter or year may be concentrated with a few large sellers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-20Item 5.02LOW
    Wendy Hannam will not stand for re-election as Encore Capital director at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. She will continue to serve until the Annual Meeting. Her decision was not the result of any disagreement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $69.10Resistance $85.42

Price Targets

$76
$82
A.Upside+1.2%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.6% upside)
! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ECPG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $81.20 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $76.10. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ECPG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $82.17 (+1.6% upside). Prior stop was $76.10. Stop-loss: $76.10.

What are the risks of investing in ECPG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is ECPG overvalued or undervalued?

Encore Capital Group Inc trades at a P/E of 7.5 (forward 6.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ECPG?

10 analysts cover ECPG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $97.

What does Encore Capital Group Inc do?Encore Capital Group is an international specialty finance company purchasing defaulted consumer receivables at deep...

Encore Capital Group is an international specialty finance company purchasing defaulted consumer receivables at deep discounts and collecting on them through MCM (U.S. market leader) and Cabot Credit Management (one of Europe's largest credit management providers). Revenue derives from collections on purchased receivable portfolios net of purchasing costs.

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