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Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $80.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Encore Capital Group is an international specialty finance company that purchases defaulted consumer receivables at discounts and manages collections through MCM (U.S. market leader) and Cabot (one of the largest in Europe/UK). Revenue is generated from cash collections on... Read more

$80.52+10.1% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#2 of 28 Credit Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-13.26%
Stop $75.98Target $88.68(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$104.33+29.6%3 analysts
$88.68our TP
$80.52price
$104.33mean
$108

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $80.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val8.7Qual6.7Grw8.8Mom3.4Sent7.0Ins3.9Peer6.3Tech8.2Risk4.76.7OVERALL

Recent Developments — Encore Capital Group Inc

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5
Negative momentum
Value-trap signals (3/5): High leverage (D/E 3.9), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.03% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.3
P/E (Fwd)6.0
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA7.8
Profit Mgn16.0%
ROE32.0%
Rev Growth21.0%
Beta1.33
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C1.19bearish
IV47%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMcounterpartyconcentrated portfolio sellers
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant percentage of our portfolio purchases for any given fiscal quarter or year may be concentrated with a few large sellers, some of which may also involve forward flow arrangements.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-20Item 5.02LOW
    Director Wendy Hannam notified the Company she will not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Decision not the result of any disagreement with the Company. Will continue serving as director until Annual Meeting.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
4.3
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $78.33Resistance $92.64

Price Targets

$76
$89
A.Upside+10.1%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ECPG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $80.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $88.68 (+10.1%), stop $75.98 (−6.0%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ECPG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $88.68 (+10.1% upside). Target $88.68 (+10.1%), stop $75.98 (−6.0%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Stop-loss: $75.98.

What are the risks of investing in ECPG?

Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Negative momentum; Value-trap signals (3/5): High leverage (D/E 3.9), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.03% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is ECPG overvalued or undervalued?

Encore Capital Group Inc trades at a P/E of 6.3 (forward 6.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ECPG?

10 analysts cover ECPG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $104.

What does Encore Capital Group Inc do?Encore Capital Group is an international specialty finance company that purchases defaulted consumer receivables at...

Encore Capital Group is an international specialty finance company that purchases defaulted consumer receivables at discounts and manages collections through MCM (U.S. market leader) and Cabot (one of the largest in Europe/UK). Revenue is generated from cash collections on purchased portfolios and debt servicing operations in Europe.

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