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CSTLCastle Biosciences, Inc.Sell4.7·$24.11-2.43%
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Castle Biosciences, Inc. (CSTL) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.11: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.57; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. (Note: Risk dimension 3.8/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.)

Castle Biosciences, Inc., a molecular diagnostics company, provides test solutions for the diagnosis and treatment of dermatologic cancers, Barrett's esophagus (BE), atopic dermatitis (AD), and uveal melanoma. The company offers DecisionDx-Melanoma, a risk stratification gene... Read more

$24.11+57.2% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#26 of 32 Diagnostics & Research
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield1.76%
Stop $22.42Target $37.89(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.8:1
Analyst target$43.56+80.7%9 analysts
$37.89our TP
$24.11price
$43.56mean
$52

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.11: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.57; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. (Note: Risk dimension 3.8/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 30d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202630d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-25.8
Mkt Cap$731M
EV/EBITDA-27.6
Profit Mgn-3.8%
ROE-2.8%
Rev Growth-4.9%
Beta1.00
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.57bearish
IV82%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -4.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.3
Declining revenue: -5%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.9
Bollinger
1.4
Support Resistance
1.7

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.9
Quality Rank
3.5
Value Rank
7.5

Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Rule Of 40
3.0
Fcf Quality
3.8
Moat
4.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
6.3
Gross Margin
10.0
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 4%, FCF yield 1.8%)No competitive moatRule of 40: -1 (fail)
GatesINSIDER 0.15%=MODERATEMomentum 6.0>=5.5A.R:R 3.8 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 30d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $19.86Resistance $24.98

Price Targets

$22
$38
A.Upside+57.2%
A.R:R3.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (30d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CSTL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.11: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.57; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. (Note: Risk dimension 3.8/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $22.42. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CSTL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.89 (+57.2% upside). Prior stop was $22.42. Stop-loss: $22.42.

What are the risks of investing in CSTL?

Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is CSTL overvalued or undervalued?

Castle Biosciences, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -25.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CSTL?

14 analysts cover CSTL with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Castle Biosciences, Inc. do?Castle Biosciences, Inc., a molecular diagnostics company, provides test solutions for the diagnosis and treatment of...

Castle Biosciences, Inc., a molecular diagnostics company, provides test solutions for the diagnosis and treatment of dermatologic cancers, Barrett's esophagus (BE), atopic dermatitis (AD), and uveal melanoma. The company offers DecisionDx-Melanoma, a risk stratification gene expression profile (GEP) test that predicts the likelihood of a positive sentinel lymph node and the risk of metastasis for patients with invasive cutaneous melanoma; TissueCypher, a risk stratification spatialomics test to predict future development of high-grade dysplasia and/or esophageal cancer in patients with non-dysplastic, indefinite dysplasia, and low-grade dysplasia BE; AdvanceAD-Tx, a non-invasive GEP test which is designed to guide systemic treatment selection for patients aged 12 years and older with moderateto-severe AD; DecisionDx-SCC, a GEP test for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma; and MyPath Melanoma, a diagnostic GEP test for use in patients with difficult-to-diagnose melanocytic lesions. It also provides DecisionDx-UM, a risk stratification GEP test that predicts the risk of metastasis for patients with uveal melanoma. The company offers its products to dermatology and gastroenterology markets. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Friendswood, Texas.

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