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CRSCarpenter Technology CorporatioHold5.8·$603.69+0.36%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A high-quality industrial compounder with four consecutive earnings beats and strong financial health metrics that has already exceeded its price target; the elevated forward earnings multiple of 44.5 times, overbought technical readings, and below-average free cash flow conversion suggest the near-term setup favors patience over new capital deployment.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Earnings CompounderImproving
  • Stretched Valuation Above TargetDeteriorating
  • Overbought Technicals Falling VolumeDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Carpenter Technology Corporatio (CRS) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Metal Fabrication

Earnings in 5 days (2026-07-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $603.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.6% away).

Carpenter Technology Corporation, founded in 1889, is engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication and distribution of specialty metals. As used throughout this report, unless the context requires otherwise, the terms "Carpenter," "Carpenter Technology," "Company," "Registrant,"... Read more

$603.69-17.7% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#5 of 11 Metal Fabrication
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.00%
IncomeYield0.13%(5y avg 1.27%)Payout8.42%sustainable
Stop $561.43Target $613.47(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$571.33-5.4%9 analysts
$613.47our TP
$603.69price
$571.33mean
$400
$722

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $603.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.6% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.6% away)
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)63.5
P/E (Fwd)46.7
Mkt Cap$30.0B
EV/EBITDA39.7
Profit Mgn15.8%
ROE24.9%
Rev Growth11.6%
Beta1.22
Dividend0.13%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.15bearish
IV66%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
1.8
Forward Pe
2.5
Analyst Target
3.0
Ps
3.5
Peg Ratio
7.1
Forward P/E: 46.7xPEG: 0.99
GatesA.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $532.58Resistance $625.99

Price Targets

$561
$613
A.Upside-17.7%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CRS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $603.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.6% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $613.47 (+1.6%), stop $561.43 (−7.5%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CRS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $613.47 (-17.7% upside). Target $613.47 (+1.6%), stop $561.43 (−7.5%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Stop-loss: $561.43.

What are the risks of investing in CRS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.6% away); Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is CRS overvalued or undervalued?

Carpenter Technology Corporatio trades at a P/E of 63.5 (forward 46.7). TrendMatrix value score: 3.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CRS?

15 analysts cover CRS with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $571.

What does Carpenter Technology Corporatio do?Carpenter Technology Corporation, founded in 1889, is engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication and distribution of...

Carpenter Technology Corporation, founded in 1889, is engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication and distribution of specialty metals. As used throughout this report, unless the context requires otherwise, the terms "Carpenter," "Carpenter Technology," "Company," "Registrant," "Issuer," "we" and "our" refer to Carpenter Technology Corporation.

Related stocks: CMC (Commercial Metals Company) · MLI (Mueller Industries, Inc.) · GPGI (GPGI, Inc.) · ESAB (ESAB Corporation) · ATI (ATI Inc.)
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