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ESAB Corporation (ESAB) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Metal Fabrication

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $88.03 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (80.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

ESAB Corporation manufactures fabrication technology including welding/cutting consumables, equipment, gas control, and robotics, operating through Americas (40% of 2025 net sales) and EMEA & APAC (60%) segments. Approximately 80% of 2025 revenues came from international... Read more

$88.03+34.4% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#9 of 9 Metal Fabrication
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.50%
IncomeYield0.48%Payout10.58%sustainable
Stop $85.13Target $118.32(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$136.00+54.5%9 analysts
$118.32our TP
$88.03price
$136.00mean
$154

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $88.03 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (80.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Val7.3Qual5.5Grw2.5Mom1.4Sent7.7Ins3.4Peer2.7Tech7.5Risk4.54.7OVERALL

Recent Developments — ESAB Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 34%
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (80.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.3
P/E (Fwd)13.6
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA12.0
Profit Mgn7.1%
ROE11.4%
Rev Growth9.9%
Beta1.20
Dividend0.48%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C32.60bearish
IV52%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicinternational operations80%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In the year ended December 31, 2025, we derived approximately 80% of our sales from operations outside of the United States'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    ESAB appointed R. Brent Jones as EVP and Chief Financial Officer effective early May 2026, to succeed the prior CFO as principal financial officer. Jones previously served as CFO of Avantor, Inc. No reason cited for prior CFO's departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.3
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.3
Quality Rank
3.5
Value Rank
6.0
GatesMomentum 1.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $87.76Resistance $109.15

Price Targets

$85
$118
A.Upside+34.4%
A.R:R3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ESAB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $88.03 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (80.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $85.13. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

What is the ESAB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $118.32 (+34.4% upside). Prior stop was $85.13. Stop-loss: $85.13.

What are the risks of investing in ESAB?

Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (80.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is ESAB overvalued or undervalued?

ESAB Corporation trades at a P/E of 23.3 (forward 13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ESAB?

16 analysts cover ESAB with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $136.

What does ESAB Corporation do?ESAB Corporation manufactures fabrication technology including welding/cutting consumables, equipment, gas control, and...

ESAB Corporation manufactures fabrication technology including welding/cutting consumables, equipment, gas control, and robotics, operating through Americas (40% of 2025 net sales) and EMEA & APAC (60%) segments. Approximately 80% of 2025 revenues came from international operations across ~150 countries, with ~10,300 employees.

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