ConocoPhillips screens attractively valued at a forward P/E of 12.2x with 14.5% upside to the analyst target and a risk/reward of approximately 3.4-to-1 in favor of the long side, but negative price momentum — with volume distributing and momentum below the required threshold — blocks entry until the trend recovers.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Contraction Growth Weakness↑Improving
- Attractive Valuation Material Upside→Stable
- Negative Momentum Volume Distribution↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $126.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $126.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — ConocoPhillips
Latest news
- NEWS Is ConocoPhillips (COP) Overvalued After 3.5% Rally? GF Value Sa - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS ConocoPhillips Stock (COP) Moved Up by 3.57% on Jul 29: Drivers Behind the Movement - TradingKey — TradingKey positive
- NEWS ConocoPhillips Stock (COP) Moved Up by 3.57% on Jul 29: Drivers Behind the Movement - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com positive
- NEWS Chord Energy, Murphy Oil, Genesis Energy, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know - StockS — StockStory positive
- NEWS Chord Energy, Murphy Oil, Genesis Energy, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know - stocks — stockstory.org positive
Generated 2026-08-15T07:48:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicproduction outside the U.S.29%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 29 percent of our hydrocarbon production was derived from production outside the U.S. in 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $126.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $129.45 (+2.1%), stop $119.34 (−6.2%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $129.45 (+2.1% upside). Target $129.45 (+2.1%), stop $119.34 (−6.2%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Stop-loss: $119.34.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
ConocoPhillips trades at a P/E of 16.8 (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.
31 analysts cover COP with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $144.
What does ConocoPhillips do?ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas...
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; global LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of global exploration prospects. It serves in the United States, Canada, China, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Malaysia, Norway, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and internationally. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.