ConocoPhillips screens attractively valued at a forward P/E of 12.2x with 14.5% upside to the analyst target and a risk/reward of approximately 3.4-to-1 in favor of the long side, but negative price momentum — with volume distributing and momentum below the required threshold — blocks entry until the trend recovers.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Contraction Growth Weakness→Stable
- Attractive Valuation Material Upside→Stable
- Negative Momentum Volume Distribution→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $104.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth.
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $104.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — ConocoPhillips
Latest news
- NEWS ConocoPhillips Stock (COP) Closed Up by 3.01% on Apr 29: Drivers Behind the Movement - TradingKey — TradingKey positive
- NEWS ConocoPhillips (COP) Reports Earnings Tomorrow: What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS After a 41% rally, is ConocoPhillips stock still worth buying? - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS COP Maintained by Mizuho -- Price Target Raised to $150 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS ConocoPhillips Stock Trades 14% Below Its 52-Week High: Here’s the Path to $135 by 2028 - TIKR.com — TIKR.com positive
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicproduction outside the U.S.29%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 29 percent of our hydrocarbon production was derived from production outside the U.S. in 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -5.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $104.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $99.61. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $128.81 (+23.0% upside). Prior stop was $99.61. Stop-loss: $99.61.
Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth; Negative momentum.
ConocoPhillips trades at a P/E of 17.8 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
32 analysts cover COP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $143.
What does ConocoPhillips do?ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas...
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; global LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of global exploration prospects. It serves in the United States, Canada, China, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Malaysia, Norway, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and internationally. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.