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ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $124.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's... Read more

$124.30+1.5% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#30 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.47%
IncomeYield2.69%(5y avg 2.47%)Payout54.92%sustainable
Stop $118.49Target $126.97(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$141.08+13.5%26 analysts
$126.97our TP
$124.30price
$141.08mean
$183

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $124.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.9/10. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 46, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — ConocoPhillips

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak overall score: 4.9/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.2
P/E (Fwd)13.9
Mkt Cap$152.4B
EV/EBITDA7.3
Profit Mgn12.3%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth-5.3%
Beta0.15
Dividend2.69%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.24bearish
IV46%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicnon-U.S. hydrocarbon production29%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 29 percent of our hydrocarbon production was derived from production outside the U.S. in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -5.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.2
Declining revenue: -5%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.9
Value Rank
3.4
Quality Rank
4.1
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $112.78Resistance $127.33

Price Targets

$118
$127
A.Upside+2.1%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.5% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $124.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.9/10. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 46, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $126.97 (+2.1%), stop $118.49 (−4.9%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $126.97 (+1.5% upside). Target $126.97 (+2.1%), stop $118.49 (−4.9%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $118.49.

What are the risks of investing in COP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.9/10; Weak growth.

Is COP overvalued or undervalued?

ConocoPhillips trades at a P/E of 21.2 (forward 13.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about COP?

33 analysts cover COP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $141.

What does ConocoPhillips do?ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas...

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; global LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of global exploration prospects. It serves in the United States, Canada, China, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Malaysia, Norway, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and internationally. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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