ConocoPhillips screens attractively valued at a forward P/E of 12.2x with 14.5% upside to the analyst target and a risk/reward of approximately 3.4-to-1 in favor of the long side, but negative price momentum — with volume distributing and momentum below the required threshold — blocks entry until the trend recovers.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Contraction Growth Weakness→Stable
- Attractive Valuation Material Upside↑Improving
- Negative Momentum Volume Distribution→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $127.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; Negative momentum.
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $127.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — ConocoPhillips
Latest news
- NEWS Is ConocoPhillips (COP) Overvalued After 3.5% Rally? GF Value Sa - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS ConocoPhillips Stock (COP) Moved Up by 3.57% on Jul 29: Drivers Behind the Movement - TradingKey — TradingKey positive
- NEWS ConocoPhillips Stock (COP) Moved Up by 3.57% on Jul 29: Drivers Behind the Movement - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com positive
- NEWS Chord Energy, Murphy Oil, Genesis Energy, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know - StockS — StockStory positive
- NEWS Chord Energy, Murphy Oil, Genesis Energy, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know - stocks — stockstory.org positive
Generated 2026-09-25T23:46:57Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicproduction outside the U.S.29%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 29 percent of our hydrocarbon production was derived from production outside the U.S. in 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $127.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $131.47 (+3.3%), stop $120.74 (−5.4%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $131.47 (+3.3% upside). Target $131.47 (+3.3%), stop $120.74 (−5.4%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Stop-loss: $120.74.
Thin upside margin: 3.3%; Negative momentum.
ConocoPhillips trades at a P/E of 17.0 (forward 13.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.
31 analysts cover COP with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $146.
What does ConocoPhillips do?ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas...
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; global LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of global exploration prospects. It serves in the United States, Canada, China, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Malaysia, Norway, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and internationally. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.