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ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $127.59 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's... Read more

$127.59+3.0% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#31 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
Stop $119.97Target $131.72(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$140.12+9.8%26 analysts
$131.72our TP
$127.59price
$140.12mean
$121
$183

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $127.59 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.9/10. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak overall score: 4.9/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.2
P/E (Fwd)15.1
Mkt Cap$156.3B
EV/EBITDA7.2
Profit Mgn13.3%
ROE12.4%
Rev Growth-6.8%
Beta0.19
Dividend2.62%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.81neutral
IV45%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWGeographicinternational production outside U.S.29%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 29 percent of our hydrocarbon production was derived from production outside the U.S. in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -6.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
0.8
Declining revenue: -7%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
3.5
Growth Rank
4.0
Quality Rank
4.2
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $112.21Resistance $134.41

Price Targets

$120
$132
A.Upside+3.2%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $127.59 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.9/10. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $119.97. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $131.72 (+3.0% upside). Prior stop was $119.97. Stop-loss: $119.97.

What are the risks of investing in COP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.9/10; Weak growth.

Is COP overvalued or undervalued?

ConocoPhillips trades at a P/E of 20.2 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about COP?

34 analysts cover COP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $140.

What does ConocoPhillips do?ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas...

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; global LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of global exploration prospects. It serves in the United States, Canada, China, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Malaysia, Norway, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and internationally. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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