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COLDAmericold Realty Trust, Inc.Sell4.7·$16.24+1.37%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A four-quarter streak of earnings misses averaging 91% below estimates, business quality well below the investable minimum, negative price momentum, and an extreme put-to-call ratio of 7.25 combine to form one of the weakest fundamental and technical setups in the coverage universe—with no identifiable bull-case items and a quality floor breach that makes this a position to avoid.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Investable MinimumStable
  • Persistent Four Quarter Miss StreakStable
  • Extreme Put Call Defensive PositioningStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Americold Realty Trust, Inc. (COLD) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Industrial

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.24: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Americold operates 231 temperature-controlled warehouses with approximately 1.4 billion cubic feet of capacity across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and South America as of December 31, 2025. The REIT generates revenue through Warehouse (storage and handling fees),... Read more

$16.24-0.9% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#13 of 16 REIT - Industrial
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield10.21%
IncomeYield5.67%(5y avg 3.96%)Payout763.64%
Stop $15.22Target $16.09(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$15.82-2.6%17 analysts
$16.09our TP
$16.24price
$15.82mean
$13
$21

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.24: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Property Type: temperature-controlled warehouses
Concentration risk — Customer: top-25 Warehouse customers (52.0%)
Target reached (-12.3% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)649.6
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA16.9
Profit Mgn-4.3%
ROE-3.7%
Rev Growth0.3%
Beta0.98
Dividend5.67%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV52%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHPropertytemperature-controlled warehouses
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our investments in real estate assets are concentrated in the industrial real estate industry, specifically in temperature-controlled warehouses'
  • HIGHCustomertop-25 Warehouse customers52%
    10-K Item 1: 'our 25 largest customers in our Warehouse segment represent 52%...of our total Warehouse segment revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -4.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.9
Operating Margin
1.7
Gross Margin
2.4
Current Ratio
3.1
Moat
3.1
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MDividend: 567.0%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.1
Support Resistance
0.7
Gap
5.0
52w Position
9.5
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.70Resistance $16.42

Price Targets

$15
$16
A.Upside-0.9%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COLD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.24: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.22. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COLD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.09 (-0.9% upside). Prior stop was $15.22. Stop-loss: $15.22.

What are the risks of investing in COLD?

Concentration risk — Property Type: temperature-controlled warehouses; Concentration risk — Customer: top-25 Warehouse customers (52.0%); Target reached (-12.3% upside).

Is COLD overvalued or undervalued?

Americold Realty Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 649.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about COLD?

21 analysts cover COLD with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Americold Realty Trust, Inc. do?Americold operates 231 temperature-controlled warehouses with approximately 1.4 billion cubic feet of capacity across...

Americold operates 231 temperature-controlled warehouses with approximately 1.4 billion cubic feet of capacity across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and South America as of December 31, 2025. The REIT generates revenue through Warehouse (storage and handling fees), Transportation, and Third-Party Managed segments, serving 2,962 customers primarily in the food supply chain.

Related stocks: FR (First Industrial Realty Trust, ) · TRNO (Terreno Realty Corporation) · NSA (National Storage Affiliates Tru) · EGP (EastGroup Properties, Inc.) · SMA (SmartStop Self Storage REIT, In)
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