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CNCKCoincheck Group N.V.Sell4.8·$2.24+5.16%
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Coincheck Group N.V. (CNCK) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.24: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Coincheck Group N.V. provides cryptocurrency exchange platform in Japan. It operates Coincheck NFT Marketplace that enables non-fungible tokens to be purchased. It trades in various cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in... Read more

$2.24+27.2% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#40 of 50 Capital Markets
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-88.98%
Stop $2.08Target $2.85(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$3.36+49.8%2 analysts
$2.85our TP
$2.24price
$3.36mean
$4

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.24: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 76. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)
Mkt Cap$429M
EV/EBITDA4.3
Profit Mgn-0.4%
ROE-11.3%
Rev Growth4.5%
Beta0.45
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
0.9
Bollinger
1.8

Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
4.2
Moat
4.6
Cash-burning: FCF -0% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.7
Growth Rank
2.0
Value Rank
9.8

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.5
Obv
1.0
Rsi
2.6
Ma Position
6.0
Macd
7.2
Overbought bear rally (RSI 76)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -13.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.6
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
76 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1.61Resistance $2.30

Price Targets

$2
$3
A.Upside+27.2%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CNCK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.24: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 76. Prior stop was $2.08. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CNCK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $2.85 (+27.2% upside). Prior stop was $2.08. Stop-loss: $2.08.

What are the risks of investing in CNCK?

Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0).

Is CNCK overvalued or undervalued?

Coincheck Group N.V. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 9.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CNCK?

9 analysts cover CNCK with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $3.

What does Coincheck Group N.V. do?Coincheck Group N.V. provides cryptocurrency exchange platform in Japan. It operates Coincheck NFT Marketplace that...

Coincheck Group N.V. provides cryptocurrency exchange platform in Japan. It operates Coincheck NFT Marketplace that enables non-fungible tokens to be purchased. It trades in various cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Coincheck Group N.V. operates as a subsidiary of Monex Group, Inc.

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