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CNCKCoincheck Group N.V.Hold6.4·$1.97-2.48%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Coincheck Group screens as extremely cheap on a peer-relative value basis and posts wildly volatile earnings surprises, but a failed momentum gate, a death-cross hard block, and business quality well below the investability floor keep conviction and position sizing at essentially zero.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Deficit From Cash Burn
  • Extreme Peer Relative Cheapness
  • Death Cross Hard Block Momentum Failure
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Coincheck Group N.V. (CNCK) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $391M below $400M minimum.

Coincheck Group N.V. operates as a cryptocurrency exchange services provider in Japan. It operates Coincheck NFT Marketplace platform that enables non-fungible tokens to be purchased. The company trades in various cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. It also offers... Read more

$1.97+28.5% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#14 of 50 Capital Markets
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-1252.27%
Stop $1.90Target $2.62(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$3.08+56.5%2 analysts
$2.62our TP
$1.97price
$3.08mean
$4

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $391M below $400M minimum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Market cap $391M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 202686d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Market cap $391M below $400M minimum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)
Mkt Cap$391M
EV/EBITDA7.8
Profit Mgn-0.3%
ROE-8.0%
Rev Growth36.1%
Beta0.47
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
4.6
Moat
5.8
Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenueWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
3.3
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 86d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1.65Resistance $3.00

Price Targets

$2
$3
A.Upside+28.5%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Market cap $391M below $400M minimum
! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (86d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CNCK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $391M below $400M minimum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Market cap $391M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Target $2.62 (+33.0%), stop $1.90 (−3.7%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CNCK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $2.62 (+28.5% upside). Target $2.62 (+33.0%), stop $1.90 (−3.7%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $1.90.

What are the risks of investing in CNCK?

Market cap $391M below $400M minimum.

Is CNCK overvalued or undervalued?

Coincheck Group N.V. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CNCK?

9 analysts cover CNCK with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $3.

What does Coincheck Group N.V. do?Coincheck Group N.V. operates as a cryptocurrency exchange services provider in Japan. It operates Coincheck NFT...

Coincheck Group N.V. operates as a cryptocurrency exchange services provider in Japan. It operates Coincheck NFT Marketplace platform that enables non-fungible tokens to be purchased. The company trades in various cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. It also offers staking rewards, asset management, trade execution and settlement, and custody services. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Coincheck Group N.V. operates as a subsidiary of Monex Group, Inc.

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