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CDWCDW CorporationSell5.1·$140.01-1.44%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

A mostly consistent earnings performer in IT distribution carries leverage of 2.4 times debt-to-equity and an elevated put/call ratio signaling institutional hedging; with the stock already above its near-term resistance target and no identifiable competitive moat, the risk/reward geometry disfavors new positions.

Thesis pillars

  • High Leverage Limits FlexibilityDeteriorating
  • Absence Of Competitive MoatStable
  • Elevated Options Hedging PressureDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

CDW Corporation (CDW) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $140.01 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5.

CDW Corporation provides IT solutions—hardware, software, and services—to over 250,000 business, government, education, and healthcare customers in the US (approximately 90% of net sales), UK, and Canada through approximately 10,500 customer-facing coworkers. In 2025, total net... Read more

$140.01-2.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#39 of 47 Information Technology Services
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield3.88%
IncomeYield1.81%(5y avg 1.28%)Payout30.23%sustainable
Stop $129.66Target $151.41(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$155.89+11.3%9 analysts
$151.41our TP
$140.01price
$155.89mean
$123
$171

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $140.01 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-16
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202679d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.8
P/E (Fwd)11.7
Mkt Cap$17.4B
EV/EBITDA11.7
Profit Mgn4.6%
ROE44.0%
Rev Growth10.0%
Beta0.94
Dividend1.81%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.82bearish
IV64%elevated
Max Pain$200+42.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $113.00Resistance $154.50

Price Targets

$130
$151
A.Upside-2.7%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.7% upside)
! momentum at 4.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CDW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $140.01 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $129.66. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the CDW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $151.41 (-2.7% upside). Prior stop was $129.66. Stop-loss: $129.66.

What are the risks of investing in CDW?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5; Elevated risk factors.

Is CDW overvalued or undervalued?

CDW Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.8 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CDW?

16 analysts cover CDW with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $156.

What does CDW Corporation do?CDW Corporation provides IT solutions—hardware, software, and services—to over 250,000 business, government, education,...

CDW Corporation provides IT solutions—hardware, software, and services—to over 250,000 business, government, education, and healthcare customers in the US (approximately 90% of net sales), UK, and Canada through approximately 10,500 customer-facing coworkers. In 2025, total net sales reached $22.4 billion with hardware at 71.6%, software at 18.7%, and services at 9.1% of that total.

Related stocks: INOD (Innodata Inc.) · FIS (Fidelity National Information S) · WSE (Wise Group plc) · EPAM (EPAM Systems, Inc.) · G (Genpact Limited)
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