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CDWCDW CorporationSell5.3·$133.37-3.64%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

A mostly consistent earnings performer in IT distribution carries leverage of 2.4 times debt-to-equity and an elevated put/call ratio signaling institutional hedging; with the stock already above its near-term resistance target and no identifiable competitive moat, the risk/reward geometry disfavors new positions.

Thesis pillars

  • High Leverage Limits FlexibilityStable
  • Absence Of Competitive MoatStable
  • Elevated Options Hedging PressureStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

CDW Corporation (CDW) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $133.37 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5.

CDW Corporation provides IT solutions—hardware, software, and services—to over 250,000 business, government, education, and healthcare customers in the US (approximately 90% of net sales), UK, and Canada through approximately 10,500 customer-facing coworkers. In 2025, total net... Read more

$133.37+6.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#28 of 46 Information Technology Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.19%
IncomeYield1.89%(5y avg 1.25%)Payout30.57%sustainable
Stop $124.03Target $141.44(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$145.11+8.8%9 analysts
$141.44our TP
$133.37price
$145.11mean
$123
$170

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $133.37 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.2
P/E (Fwd)11.4
Mkt Cap$17.0B
EV/EBITDA11.4
Profit Mgn4.7%
ROE44.2%
Rev Growth9.2%
Beta0.96
Dividend1.89%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.35bearish
IV53%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $123.08Resistance $144.33

Price Targets

$124
$141
A.Upside+6.1%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CDW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $133.37 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Prior stop was $124.03. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the CDW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $141.44 (+6.1% upside). Prior stop was $124.03. Stop-loss: $124.03.

What are the risks of investing in CDW?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is CDW overvalued or undervalued?

CDW Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.2 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CDW?

17 analysts cover CDW with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $145.

What does CDW Corporation do?CDW Corporation provides IT solutions—hardware, software, and services—to over 250,000 business, government, education,...

CDW Corporation provides IT solutions—hardware, software, and services—to over 250,000 business, government, education, and healthcare customers in the US (approximately 90% of net sales), UK, and Canada through approximately 10,500 customer-facing coworkers. In 2025, total net sales reached $22.4 billion with hardware at 71.6%, software at 18.7%, and services at 9.1% of that total.

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