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CDWCDW CorporationSell5.0·$148.67-1.08%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

A mostly consistent earnings performer in IT distribution carries leverage of 2.4 times debt-to-equity and an elevated put/call ratio signaling institutional hedging; with the stock already above its near-term resistance target and no identifiable competitive moat, the risk/reward geometry disfavors new positions.

Thesis pillars

  • High Leverage Limits FlexibilityDeteriorating
  • Absence Of Competitive MoatStable
  • Elevated Options Hedging PressureDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

CDW Corporation (CDW) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $148.67 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).

CDW Corporation provides IT solutions—hardware, software, and services—to over 250,000 business, government, education, and healthcare customers in the US (approximately 90% of net sales), UK, and Canada through approximately 10,500 customer-facing coworkers. In 2025, total net... Read more

$148.67-8.8% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#38 of 48 Information Technology Services
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield3.60%
IncomeYield1.66%(5y avg 1.30%)Payout30.23%sustainable
Stop $138.26Target $151.07(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$155.89+4.9%9 analysts
$151.07our TP
$148.67price
$155.89mean
$123
$171

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $148.67 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-02
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202662d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.2
P/E (Fwd)12.6
Mkt Cap$18.8B
EV/EBITDA12.4
Profit Mgn4.6%
ROE44.0%
Rev Growth10.0%
Beta0.94
Dividend1.66%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.42bearish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$190+27.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.6
Support Resistance
2.3
Gap
5.0
52w Position
6.7
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $130.10Resistance $154.15

Price Targets

$138
$151
A.Upside-8.8%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CDW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $148.67 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $138.26. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the CDW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $151.07 (-8.8% upside). Prior stop was $138.26. Stop-loss: $138.26.

What are the risks of investing in CDW?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is CDW overvalued or undervalued?

CDW Corporation trades at a P/E of 18.2 (forward 12.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CDW?

16 analysts cover CDW with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $156.

What does CDW Corporation do?CDW Corporation provides IT solutions—hardware, software, and services—to over 250,000 business, government, education,...

CDW Corporation provides IT solutions—hardware, software, and services—to over 250,000 business, government, education, and healthcare customers in the US (approximately 90% of net sales), UK, and Canada through approximately 10,500 customer-facing coworkers. In 2025, total net sales reached $22.4 billion with hardware at 71.6%, software at 18.7%, and services at 9.1% of that total.

Related stocks: FIS (Fidelity National Information S) · CACI (CACI International, Inc.) · FORTY (Formula Systems (1985) Ltd.) · PENG (Penguin Solutions, Inc.) · EPAM (EPAM Systems, Inc.)
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