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CDRECadre Holdings, Inc.Sell6.3·$29.22-2.21%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

An attractively valued aerospace-and-defense supplier with roughly 40% upside to analyst consensus and a strong earnings track record sits in a confirmed technical downtrend that currently blocks new entry; if the stock stabilizes and the moving-average structure recovers, the valuation and earnings fundamentals argue for a meaningful re-rating.

Thesis pillars

  • Material Valuation Upside GapStable
  • Earnings Beat ConsistencyStable
  • Confirmed Technical DowntrendStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $29.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Cadre Holdings, Inc. is a global manufacturer and distributor of safety equipment for law enforcement, first responder, military, and nuclear markets, including body armor, explosive ordnance disposal gear, duty gear, and nuclear-material handling and containment products. The... Read more

$29.22+41.4% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#5 of 66 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.17%
IncomeYield1.32%Payout48.15%sustainable
Stop $27.26Target $41.33(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.5:1
Analyst target$47.50+62.6%6 analysts
$41.33our TP
$29.22price
$47.50mean
$62

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $29.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Cadre Holdings, Inc.

About Cadre Holdings, Inc.

Cadre Holdings manufactures and distributes safety equipment across four end markets — law enforcement, first responder, military, and nuclear — selling body armor, explosive ordnance disposal gear, duty holsters, and nuclear containment products to more than 23,000 customers in over 100 countries. No single customer exceeds 10% of revenue, and over 60% of Product segment sales are tied to mandated refresh cycles of five to ten years. The company carried $309.1 million of long-term debt at December 31, 2025.

Revenue splits across four customer channels — U.S. state and local agencies, international buyers in more than 100 countries, U.S. federal agencies (DoS, DoW, DoI, DoJ, DHS, DoE), and a direct-to-consumer Commercial channel — sold through longstanding third-party distributors, an owned distribution platform, and e-commerce. Body armor and duty gear revenue is driven by mandated replacement cycles and technical-standard upgrades, while nuclear safety products (Alpha Safety and the newly acquired Zircaloy businesses) serve environmental cleanup, national-security plutonium-pit production, and nuclear-plant decommissioning demand estimated at $3 billion to $6 billion in addressable market. Manufacturing relies on patented ballistic materials — SpectraShield from Honeywell, Kevlar from DuPont, Dyneema from DSM, and Twaron from Teijin — purchased directly from those manufacturers and through five independent weaving companies, with supply constrained at times by Defense Production Act rated-order prioritization. Cadre has completed 18 acquisitions to date, most recently Zircaloy (April 2025) and TYR Tactical (January 2026), the latter deriving approximately 66% of its revenue from customers outside the U.S.

Show full overview

Cadre's ballistic-armor supply chain concentrates on a small set of patented, non-interchangeable materials rather than a diversified commodity input: SpectraShield, Kevlar, Dyneema, and Twaron each come from a single patent holder, and switching to an alternative material would require new research and development, recertification, and customer acceptance before it could be used in fielded body armor. That dependency is compounded by the U.S. government's authority to invoke the Defense Production Act, which has previously caused Cadre's material suppliers to prioritize government-rated orders ahead of Cadre's own orders, creating shortages the company has historically resolved only by qualifying substitute materials — a process it says is not guaranteed to succeed for future shortages.

See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

From Cadre Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202660d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.2
P/E (Fwd)18.2
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA15.3
Profit Mgn5.3%
ROE10.6%
Rev Growth31.8%
Beta1.31
Dividend1.32%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV105%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5INSIDER 0.67%=EXTREMEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.5 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 60d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $28.10Resistance $34.65

Price Targets

$27
$41
A.Upside+41.4%
A.R:R4.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Insider activity: 0.67%=extreme
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (60d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CDRE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $29.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $27.26. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CDRE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.33 (+41.4% upside). Prior stop was $27.26. Stop-loss: $27.26.

What are the risks of investing in CDRE?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Negative momentum.

Is CDRE overvalued or undervalued?

Cadre Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 35.2 (forward 18.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CDRE?

12 analysts cover CDRE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Cadre Holdings, Inc. do?Cadre Holdings, Inc. is a global manufacturer and distributor of safety equipment for law enforcement, first responder,...

Cadre Holdings, Inc. is a global manufacturer and distributor of safety equipment for law enforcement, first responder, military, and nuclear markets, including body armor, explosive ordnance disposal gear, duty gear, and nuclear-material handling and containment products. The company sells to over 23,000 domestic and international customers with no single customer exceeding 10% of revenue, and grew its nuclear and tactical-gear portfolio in 2025-2026 through the Zircaloy (April 2025) and TYR Tactical (January 2026) acquisitions, while carrying $309.1 million of long-term debt as of December 3

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