Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.7 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.29
- ▸Attractively valued
CDRE · Why this verdict
Why Cadre Holdings (CDRE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of approximately 20 times with a PEG ratio of 0.29, while analyst consensus implies roughly 40% upside to fair value — a gap that is unusually wide for an industrial business with a demonstrated earnings track record, and that the risk/reward geometry of approximately 7-to-1 in favor of the upside confirms. Price targets | Price moves toward the analyst consensus target, capturing at least 20% of the 40% upside gap within 12 months as the fundamental re-rating materializes. | →Stable |
| CounterA wide gap between current price and analyst targets can persist or widen in a confirmed downtrend; if the technical deterioration attracts additional selling, the valuation gap may expand before it closes, representing a prolonged value trap rather than a near-term opportunity. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 27%, including a near-doubling of the consensus estimate in the most recent quarter — a pattern consistent with management consistently under-promising and over-delivering relative to Street expectations. Earnings | The beat rate is sustained, with EPS beating consensus by more than 10% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one quarter that missed during the past four came in approximately 37% below consensus, demonstrating that when the company misses, the magnitude can be significant; the high-beta profile and small market capitalization amplify earnings risk in both directions. | ||
A death-cross formation, the stock trading below all major moving averages, an RSI of 40, and falling on-balance volume together indicate that the dominant market structure remains one of selling, and capital entering now is fighting the primary trend. Engine gate (failed) | Price crosses above the 200-day moving average and MACD turns positive for 2 consecutive months, confirming that the downtrend has reversed and the technical backdrop supports accumulation. | →Stable |
| CounterWith RSI at 40 the stock may be approaching technical exhaustion; the extremely low put/call ratio of 0.14 suggests minimal hedging activity, which can indicate that bears are already fully positioned and incremental downside pressure may be limited. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.2 commits a meaningful portion of the company's cash flow to servicing obligations rather than growth investment or shareholder returns, and leaves less cushion to absorb a softening in government procurement volumes. Bear case | Debt-to-equity ratio falls below 0.8 over the next 4 quarters as cash generation is directed toward debt reduction. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E of 20 times and PEG of 0.29 imply the market does not view the leverage as distress-level; in an aerospace and defense business with relatively stable government contract revenues, moderate leverage is often serviceable and does not materially impair the investment case. | ||
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of approximately 20 times with a PEG ratio of 0.29, while analyst consensus implies roughly 40% upside to fair value — a gap that is unusually wide for an industrial business with a demonstrated earnings track record, and that the risk/reward geometry of approximately 7-to-1 in favor of the upside confirms.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst consensus target, capturing at least 20% of the 40% upside gap within 12 months as the fundamental re-rating materializes.
CounterA wide gap between current price and analyst targets can persist or widen in a confirmed downtrend; if the technical deterioration attracts additional selling, the valuation gap may expand before it closes, representing a prolonged value trap rather than a near-term opportunity.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 27%, including a near-doubling of the consensus estimate in the most recent quarter — a pattern consistent with management consistently under-promising and over-delivering relative to Street expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat rate is sustained, with EPS beating consensus by more than 10% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe one quarter that missed during the past four came in approximately 37% below consensus, demonstrating that when the company misses, the magnitude can be significant; the high-beta profile and small market capitalization amplify earnings risk in both directions.
A death-cross formation, the stock trading below all major moving averages, an RSI of 40, and falling on-balance volume together indicate that the dominant market structure remains one of selling, and capital entering now is fighting the primary trend.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Price crosses above the 200-day moving average and MACD turns positive for 2 consecutive months, confirming that the downtrend has reversed and the technical backdrop supports accumulation.
CounterWith RSI at 40 the stock may be approaching technical exhaustion; the extremely low put/call ratio of 0.14 suggests minimal hedging activity, which can indicate that bears are already fully positioned and incremental downside pressure may be limited.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.2 commits a meaningful portion of the company's cash flow to servicing obligations rather than growth investment or shareholder returns, and leaves less cushion to absorb a softening in government procurement volumes.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity ratio falls below 0.8 over the next 4 quarters as cash generation is directed toward debt reduction.
CounterA forward P/E of 20 times and PEG of 0.29 imply the market does not view the leverage as distress-level; in an aerospace and defense business with relatively stable government contract revenues, moderate leverage is often serviceable and does not materially impair the investment case.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
An attractively valued aerospace-and-defense supplier with roughly 40% upside to analyst consensus and a strong earnings track record sits in a confirmed technical downtrend that currently blocks new entry; if the stock stabilizes and the moving-average structure recovers, the valuation and earnings fundamentals argue for a meaningful re-rating.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 4.4 |
| Op margin | 3.6 |
| Net margin | 2.9 |
| Current ratio | 7.8 |
| FCF quality | 4.9 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 64% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.5 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 6.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 59%
Insider
3.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,068,000 (0.164% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.2 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 5.2 |
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 4.4 |
| 52w position | 2.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 3.7 |
| volatility | 1.2 |
| put call | 8.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
- ▸High IV: 83%
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 132.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.2>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.16%=MODERATE
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.5>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
4.23
Upside
+38.3%
Downside
9.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.32>1.3, MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.5 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.23 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Value at 7.0, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Insider at 3.3, Technical at 3.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Material Valuation Upside Gap
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $33, compressing implied upside to less than 15% from current levels.
- P2Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip ifPrice crosses above the 200-day moving average and holds above it for 2 consecutive months.
- P4Leverage Limits Financial Cushion
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 0.8 for 2 consecutive quarters.