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CCEPCoca-Cola Europacific Partners Sell4.6·$105.88-3.00%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The stock is already trading above the analyst consensus ceiling with negative implied upside, and four consecutive earnings misses averaging -40% underscore a persistent gap between market expectations and actual delivery; the sole offsetting factor is strong price momentum — a golden cross with rising on-balance volume and RSI at 68 — which may sustain the current price but provides no fundamental support for a new position.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Technical Price MomentumDeteriorating
  • Price Above Analyst Target CeilingStable
  • Persistent Earnings Miss PatternDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) Stock Analysis

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $105.88 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC, together with its subsidiaries, produces, distributes, and sells a range of non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages. It offers flavours, mixers, energy drinks, soft drinks, water, enhanced water, isotonic drinks, tea and coffee, juices, and... Read more

$105.88-7.0% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#13 of 13 Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.29%
IncomeYield2.24%(5y avg 2.89%)Payout46.62%sustainable
Stop $102.07Target $108.36(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$113.18+6.9%11 analysts
$108.36our TP
$105.88price
$113.18mean
$101
$121

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $105.88 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 168d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Feb 19, 2027168d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.9
P/E (Fwd)19.2
Mkt Cap$48.2B
EV/EBITDA16.7
Profit Mgn9.3%
ROE23.5%
Rev Growth4.4%
Beta0.48
Dividend2.24%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.57bullish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$125+18.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.2
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
3.5
Dividend Safety
4.8
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.5
Quality Rank
4.2
Value Rank
5.4

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.6
Earnings Growth
3.8
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 168d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $104.57Resistance $110.57

Price Targets

$102
$108
A.Upside-7.0%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.0% upside)
! momentum at 2.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-19 (168d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CCEP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $105.88 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $102.07. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CCEP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $108.36 (-7.0% upside). Prior stop was $102.07. Stop-loss: $102.07.

What are the risks of investing in CCEP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Is CCEP overvalued or undervalued?

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners trades at a P/E of 20.9 (forward 19.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CCEP?

23 analysts cover CCEP with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $113.

What does Coca-Cola Europacific Partners do?Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC, together with its subsidiaries, produces, distributes, and sells a range of...

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC, together with its subsidiaries, produces, distributes, and sells a range of non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages. It offers flavours, mixers, energy drinks, soft drinks, water, enhanced water, isotonic drinks, tea and coffee, juices, and other drinks. The company provides its products under the Coca-Cola Original Taste, Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, Diet Coke, Sprite, Sprite Zero Sugar, Fanta, Fanta Zero Sugar, Monster Energy, A&W, Absolut Vodka & SPRITE, Ades, Appletiser, aquaBona, Aquarius, BACARDÍ Mixed with Coca Cola RTD, Barista Bros, Bonaqua, BURN, Deep Spring, Dr Pepper, Dr Pepper Zero Sugar, Feral Brewing Co, Fuze Tea, Giancarlo Coffee, GLACEAU smartwater, Grinders, HALO, Jack Daniel's & Coca-Cola ready-to-drink, Kristal, L&P, MER, Minute Maid, Mother, Mount Franklin, Nordic Mist, Nutriboost, Oasis, Pulpy, pump, pumped, Reign, Rekorderlig Cider, Relentless, Royal, Royal Bliss, Schweppes, Schweppes Mix, SOCO, URGE, Vilas del Turbón, Voyage, Wilkins Pure, and Zephyr Coffee Co brands. It is also involved in the bottling and other operations. The company was formerly known as Coca-Cola European Partners plc and changed its name to Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC in May 2021. The company was founded in 1904 and is based in Uxbridge, United Kingdom.

Related stocks: COKE (Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.) · MNST (Monster Beverage Corporation) · KDP (Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.) · PEP (Pepsico, Inc.) · KO (Coca-Cola Company (The))
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