Value
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.8 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.4 |
| PEG | 3.6 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.1x
- ▸PEG: 3.13
CCEP · Why this verdict
Why Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners is a defensive beverage business with positive momentum near its 52-week high, but the price is 16.4% above the analyst target, growth is weak and valuation is rich at 20.5x forward earnings.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum is strong (8.1), with rising on-balance volume and the price above its 200-day average, a golden-cross breakout. Momentum breakdown | The price holds above its 200-day moving average over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe price sits only 1.2% below its 52-week high, and elevated put positioning (put/call 2.47) shows traders are hedging a pullback. | ||
Earnings quality carries a warning, with free cash flow at 79% of net income, though the Piotroski score is a strong 7/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income recovers above 90% over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterCash conversion below 100% together with a below-average quality score may signal capex needs that cap shareholder returns. | ||
The price of $113.22 is above the $94.67 analyst target, with upside of -16.4% (target reached), against 11.6% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised toward the share price, restoring positive upside. | →Stable |
| CounterDefensive consumer staples often trade above stale targets, and strong momentum may force analysts to catch up. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 20.5x with a PEG of 3.07, a high price for a business with low growth scores (revenue 3.6, earnings 3.8). Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth accelerates enough to bring the PEG below 2.5. | →Stable |
| CounterDefensive cash-flow businesses often earn premium multiples, so the valuation may hold even without growth acceleration. | ||
Insiders show no net activity ($0 over 90 days, 0.000% of market cap), a neutral ownership backdrop with no insider conviction either way. Insider transaction read | Insider activity stays neutral or turns to net buying. | →Stable |
| CounterZero insider buying at a 52-week high means insiders are not signalling that the price is attractive. | ||
Momentum is strong (8.1), with rising on-balance volume and the price above its 200-day average, a golden-cross breakout.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price holds above its 200-day moving average over the next 12 months.
CounterThe price sits only 1.2% below its 52-week high, and elevated put positioning (put/call 2.47) shows traders are hedging a pullback.
Earnings quality carries a warning, with free cash flow at 79% of net income, though the Piotroski score is a strong 7/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income recovers above 90% over the next four quarters.
CounterCash conversion below 100% together with a below-average quality score may signal capex needs that cap shareholder returns.
The price of $113.22 is above the $94.67 analyst target, with upside of -16.4% (target reached), against 11.6% downside to the stop.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised toward the share price, restoring positive upside.
CounterDefensive consumer staples often trade above stale targets, and strong momentum may force analysts to catch up.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 20.5x with a PEG of 3.07, a high price for a business with low growth scores (revenue 3.6, earnings 3.8).
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth accelerates enough to bring the PEG below 2.5.
CounterDefensive cash-flow businesses often earn premium multiples, so the valuation may hold even without growth acceleration.
Insiders show no net activity ($0 over 90 days, 0.000% of market cap), a neutral ownership backdrop with no insider conviction either way.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider activity stays neutral or turns to net buying.
CounterZero insider buying at a 52-week high means insiders are not signalling that the price is attractive.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.8 |
| ROA | 3.8 |
| Gross margin | 3.1 |
| Op margin | 5.4 |
| Net margin | 4.7 |
| Current ratio | 3.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 79% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 3.8 |
Momentum
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 9.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.4 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 4.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.48 (n=3)
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.5 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.2 |
| days to cover | 3.0 |
| volatility | 6.3 |
| put call | 9.8 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.2 |
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:106d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.46
Upside
-14.6%
Downside
9.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.46 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.8, Sentiment at 6.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.3, Catalyst at 3.6, and Growth at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.46 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Positive Price Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and momentum score drops below 4.5 from the current 8.1.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifDownside to the stop level exceeds 15% while the price stays more than 10% above the analyst target.
- P3Rich Valuation Slow Growth
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 25x from the current 20.5x.
- P4Cash Conversion Quality Warning
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 65% from the current 79%.
- P5Neutral Insider Activity
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds 0.05% of market cap in a 90-day window.