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CBUCommunity Financial System, IncSell5.4·$65.14-1.57%
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Community Financial System, Inc (CBU) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $65.14 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.5% away).

Community Financial System, Inc. operates Community Bank, N.A. through 192 full-service branches across Upstate New York, Northeastern Pennsylvania, Vermont, Western Massachusetts, and Southern New Hampshire, alongside national employee benefit services (BPAS), insurance, and... Read more

$65.14+0.4% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#114 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.84%(5y avg 3.08%)Payout45.39%sustainable
Stop $62.02Target $65.37(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$68.50+5.2%6 analysts
$65.37our TP
$65.14price
$68.50mean
$75

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $65.14 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.5% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 42d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Community Financial System, Inc

About Community Financial System, Inc

Community Financial System's banking subsidiary, Community Bank, N.A., operated 192 full-service branches and 8 drive-thru locations across 42 Upstate New York counties, 9 Northeastern Pennsylvania counties, 12 Vermont counties, and single-county presences in Western Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire at December 31, 2025. The company employs 3,001 people across four segments — Banking and Corporate, Employee Benefit Services, Insurance Services, and Wealth Management Services — with Community Bank regulated by the OCC as its primary federal regulator and the holding company subject to FRB oversight.

The company earns net interest income from the deposit-funded loan portfolio and fee income from three non-bank segments. BPAS — the national employee benefit platform — administers defined contribution plans, master recordkeeping, fund administration, and actuarial services across the U.S. and Puerto Rico through subsidiaries including Northeast Retirement Services and Hand Benefits & Trust. OneGroup, the insurance services subsidiary, brokers personal and commercial lines across the banking footprint. A November 2025 acquisition of seven Santander Bank branches in the Lehigh Valley region of Pennsylvania added $31.9 million in loans and $543.7 million in deposits, expanding the company's presence into a higher-density urban market. The BPAS employee benefit platform competes at national scale while the banking franchise competes locally with national and state banks, thrift institutions, credit unions, and fintech lenders.

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Interest-rate exposure runs symmetrically: when rates rise, unrealized losses on investment securities widen and tangible equity compresses; when rates fall, loan and securities yields decline faster than deposit costs. The 10-K notes a substantial, unexpected, prolonged change in market interest rates could have a material adverse effect on financial condition and results of operations — a risk amplified by the OCC's power to set individual minimum capital ratios above regulatory minimums if the bank's capital position deteriorates. The company's most recent CRA rating was Satisfactory, preserving its financial holding company status and eligibility to affiliate with securities and insurance companies.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From Community Financial System, Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202642d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.5% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.1
P/E (Fwd)12.3
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn26.8%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth9.5%
Beta0.80
Dividend2.84%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV76%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
1.5
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 42d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $61.02Resistance $66.70

Price Targets

$62
$65
A.Upside+0.4%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (42d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CBU stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $65.14 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.5% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $62.02. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CBU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $65.37 (+0.4% upside). Prior stop was $62.02. Stop-loss: $62.02.

What are the risks of investing in CBU?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.5% away); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is CBU overvalued or undervalued?

Community Financial System, Inc trades at a P/E of 16.1 (forward 12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CBU?

10 analysts cover CBU with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $69.

What does Community Financial System, Inc do?Community Financial System, Inc. operates Community Bank, N.A. through 192 full-service branches across Upstate New...

Community Financial System, Inc. operates Community Bank, N.A. through 192 full-service branches across Upstate New York, Northeastern Pennsylvania, Vermont, Western Massachusetts, and Southern New Hampshire, alongside national employee benefit services (BPAS), insurance, and wealth management subsidiaries. Revenue comes from net interest income on loans and deposits plus fee-based services including retirement plan administration, insurance brokerage, and investment advisory, with 3,001 employees as of December 31, 2025.

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