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Community Financial System, Inc (CBU) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $62.46 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

Community Financial System operates Community Bank, N.A. through 192 branches across Upstate New York, Northeastern Pennsylvania, Vermont, Western Massachusetts, and Southern New Hampshire, plus BPAS employee benefits (national), OneGroup insurance, and Nottingham wealth... Read more

$62.46+1.1% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#122 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.05%(5y avg 3.07%)Payout45.39%sustainable
Stop $59.60Target $63.16(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$68.50+9.7%6 analysts
$63.16our TP
$62.46price
$68.50mean
$75

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $62.46 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Community Financial System, Inc

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.0
P/E (Fwd)11.5
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn26.8%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth9.5%
Beta0.80
Dividend3.05%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV40%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMregulatoryOCC
    10-K Item 1: 'The Bank is a federally chartered national bank and is subject to extensive regulation and supervision by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency ("OCC") as its primary federal regulator'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-11Item 5.02LOW
    Brenda M. Hall (former EVP/COO of Standard Lines at Selective Insurance) elected as new independent director effective March 1, 2026. Board now consists of 14 directors, 13 independent. No successor named as she is an addition.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.5
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
1.3
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $60.94Resistance $64.45

Price Targets

$60
$63
A.Upside+1.1%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.6% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CBU stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $62.46 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $59.60. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CBU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $63.16 (+1.1% upside). Prior stop was $59.60. Stop-loss: $59.60.

What are the risks of investing in CBU?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is CBU overvalued or undervalued?

Community Financial System, Inc trades at a P/E of 15.0 (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CBU?

10 analysts cover CBU with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $69.

What does Community Financial System, Inc do?Community Financial System operates Community Bank, N.A. through 192 branches across Upstate New York, Northeastern...

Community Financial System operates Community Bank, N.A. through 192 branches across Upstate New York, Northeastern Pennsylvania, Vermont, Western Massachusetts, and Southern New Hampshire, plus BPAS employee benefits (national), OneGroup insurance, and Nottingham wealth management. Acquired 7 Santander branches in the Lehigh Valley in November 2025. Four reportable segments: Banking/Corporate, Employee Benefit Services, Insurance, Wealth Management.

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