Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 6.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.07
- ▸Attractively valued
CBU · Why this verdict
Why Community Financial System (CBU) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Community Financial System is an attractively valued regional bank with strong margins and positive momentum, but three misses in the last four quarters and a price 3.8% above the analyst target undermine the case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank earns strong margins of 27% and a 7/9 Piotroski score, but the data finds no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Net margin stays above 22% over the next four quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWithout a moat, deposit competition can squeeze margins, and return on equity scores only 3.9 out of 10. | ||
The bank trades at a forward P/E of 12.0x with a PEG of 1.04, which the data calls attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth holds so the forward multiple stays near 12x or lower. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEarnings growth is slow (earnings growth score 4.3) and recent misses suggest forward estimates may be too high. | ||
The bank missed EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -3.92%, before a small beat of 0.56% in the latest quarter. Miss count | EPS beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe latest quarter returned to a beat, which could mark the turn if cost pressures are easing. | ||
The price of $62.37 is above the $60.03 analyst target, with upside of -3.8% (target reached), against 8.6% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised toward the share price, restoring positive upside. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPositive momentum (RSI 70, rising on-balance volume) may keep lifting the price, making the lagging target a poor guide. | ||
Momentum is positive with the price above its 200-day average and rising on-balance volume, but the stock is overbought at RSI 70. Momentum breakdown | The price holds above its 200-day moving average over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOverbought readings plus an earnings track record of misses make a pullback more likely than a continued run. | ||
The bank earns strong margins of 27% and a 7/9 Piotroski score, but the data finds no competitive moat.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin stays above 22% over the next four quarters.
CounterWithout a moat, deposit competition can squeeze margins, and return on equity scores only 3.9 out of 10.
The bank trades at a forward P/E of 12.0x with a PEG of 1.04, which the data calls attractively valued.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth holds so the forward multiple stays near 12x or lower.
CounterEarnings growth is slow (earnings growth score 4.3) and recent misses suggest forward estimates may be too high.
The bank missed EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -3.92%, before a small beat of 0.56% in the latest quarter.
↓DeterioratingMiss count
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe latest quarter returned to a beat, which could mark the turn if cost pressures are easing.
The price of $62.37 is above the $60.03 analyst target, with upside of -3.8% (target reached), against 8.6% downside to the stop.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised toward the share price, restoring positive upside.
CounterPositive momentum (RSI 70, rising on-balance volume) may keep lifting the price, making the lagging target a poor guide.
Momentum is positive with the price above its 200-day average and rising on-balance volume, but the stock is overbought at RSI 70.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price holds above its 200-day moving average over the next 12 months.
CounterOverbought readings plus an earnings track record of misses make a pullback more likely than a continued run.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.3 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 7.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 76)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $75,265 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 4.4 |
| volatility | 7.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| beta | 8.4 |
Catalyst
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:82d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.56
Upside
-5.9%
Downside
10.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.3B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.1; weakest: Catalyst at 3.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1, and Momentum at 6.3; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.1, Technical at 3.6, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.56 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 15x from the current 12.0x.
- P2Strong Margins No Moat
Trip ifNet margin falls below 20% from the current 27%.
- P3Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifDownside to the stop level exceeds 12% while the price stays above the analyst target.
- P5Positive Momentum Overbought
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and momentum score drops below 4.5 from the current 7.5.