BJRI shows excellent cash conversion and a solid earnings beat streak, but its quality score sits below the engine's floor, its valuation target has already been reached with a negative modeled asymmetry, and insiders have been notable net sellers.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Floor Despite Strong Cash Conversion→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak With Catalyst→Stable
- Target Reached Negative Asymmetry→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $61.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality.
BJ's Restaurants operates 219 full-service restaurants across 31 states as of February 27, 2026, featuring a roughly 90-item menu built around deep-dish pizza, large-format entrees, and craft beer brewed at four in-house breweries and two standalone brewpubs. The company employs... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $61.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Texas, and Florida10-K Item 1A: 'a significant number of our restaurants are concentrated in California, Texas and Florida'
- HIGHSuppliersingle malt supplier10-K Item 1A: 'We purchase a majority of our malts from a single supplier with multiple sources of malts.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-23Item 5.02LOWBoard approved increased non-employee director compensation effective June 17, 2026, including a $5,000 increase to the annual cash retainer (to $80,000) and a $15,000 increase to the annual restricted stock unit award (to $140,000), plus higher committee retainer fees. Routine compensation update; no personnel change.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-10Item 5.02LOWAshley A. Van appointed Senior Vice President and Principal Accounting Officer effective May 11, 2026. Routine officer appointment; no predecessor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $61.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $56.09. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $60.83 (+0.9% upside). Prior stop was $56.09. Stop-loss: $56.09.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single malt supplier; Target reached (-35.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.5 (forward 22.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover BJRI with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $45.
What does BJ's Restaurants, Inc. do?BJ's Restaurants operates 219 full-service restaurants across 31 states as of February 27, 2026, featuring a roughly...
BJ's Restaurants operates 219 full-service restaurants across 31 states as of February 27, 2026, featuring a roughly 90-item menu built around deep-dish pizza, large-format entrees, and craft beer brewed at four in-house breweries and two standalone brewpubs. The company employs approximately 22,000 team members and competes in the fragmented $100+ billion full-service restaurant segment, with menu prices generally ranging from $8.99 to $35.99. A significant number of BJ's restaurants are concentrated in California, Texas, and Florida.