Value
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.7 |
| PEG | 4.5 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.5x
- ▸PEG: 2.00
BJRI · Why this verdict
Why BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.0/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality registers at 3.1, below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by the absence of a competitive moat, even though cash conversion is excellent at 172% of net income in free cash flow terms. Quality breakdown | Quality score should climb above 4.0 as competitive positioning strengthens over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterExcellent cash conversion at 172% FCF/NI indicates genuinely strong underlying cash economics that could eventually support a higher quality score despite the moat penalty. | ||
The company has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with a 23.7% average surprise, and the engine identifies a catalyst-driven edge tied to the report in 26 days. Catalyst breakdown | The beat rate should hold at 3 of 4 or better over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss (-5.79% surprise), and overbought technicals (RSI 70) suggest the market may have already priced in continued beats. | ||
The stock has already reached its prior valuation target, leaving a -33.4% upside estimate, with the asymmetry ratio failing the engine's gate at -2.22. Engine gate (failed) | The upside estimate should turn positive and the asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA rich forward P/E of 22.5x paired with a PEG of 2.00 for a restaurant chain shows the market already pricing in growth expectations, which could still be met given the recent earnings beat streak. | ||
Insiders have sold $3,384,698 (0.274% of market cap) over the past 90 days across 12 transactions with no offsetting buys, generating a bearish insider signal at a moderate severity. Insider transaction read | Insider activity should shift toward net buying or the bearish signal should moderate over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA moderate severity classification suggests the selling, while notable in transaction count, may not yet represent an outsized share of insider holdings. | ||
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 70 while on-balance volume is falling in a distribution pattern, even though price remains above its 200-day moving average and momentum clears the engine's soft gate at 5.1. Momentum breakdown | RSI should normalize below 60 and on-balance volume should shift back toward accumulation over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum has already cleared the engine's hard 4.5 threshold, suggesting the overbought reading may not immediately precede a reversal. | ||
Business quality registers at 3.1, below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by the absence of a competitive moat, even though cash conversion is excellent at 172% of net income in free cash flow terms.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should climb above 4.0 as competitive positioning strengthens over the next 12 months.
CounterExcellent cash conversion at 172% FCF/NI indicates genuinely strong underlying cash economics that could eventually support a higher quality score despite the moat penalty.
The company has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with a 23.7% average surprise, and the engine identifies a catalyst-driven edge tied to the report in 26 days.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat rate should hold at 3 of 4 or better over the next 12 months.
CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss (-5.79% surprise), and overbought technicals (RSI 70) suggest the market may have already priced in continued beats.
The stock has already reached its prior valuation target, leaving a -33.4% upside estimate, with the asymmetry ratio failing the engine's gate at -2.22.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The upside estimate should turn positive and the asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterA rich forward P/E of 22.5x paired with a PEG of 2.00 for a restaurant chain shows the market already pricing in growth expectations, which could still be met given the recent earnings beat streak.
Insiders have sold $3,384,698 (0.274% of market cap) over the past 90 days across 12 transactions with no offsetting buys, generating a bearish insider signal at a moderate severity.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider activity should shift toward net buying or the bearish signal should moderate over the next 12 months.
CounterA moderate severity classification suggests the selling, while notable in transaction count, may not yet represent an outsized share of insider holdings.
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 70 while on-balance volume is falling in a distribution pattern, even though price remains above its 200-day moving average and momentum clears the engine's soft gate at 5.1.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should normalize below 60 and on-balance volume should shift back toward accumulation over the next 12 months.
CounterMomentum has already cleared the engine's hard 4.5 threshold, suggesting the overbought reading may not immediately precede a reversal.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BJRI shows excellent cash conversion and a solid earnings beat streak, but its quality score sits below the engine's floor, its valuation target has already been reached with a negative modeled asymmetry, and insiders have been notable net sellers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.4 |
| Net margin | 1.6 |
| Current ratio | 1.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 172% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 76)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 1.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
3.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $3,384,698 (0.274% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 2.2 |
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.9 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 2.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 4.5 |
- ▸High IV: 70%
- ▸Above max pain $18
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- INSIDER:0.27%=MODERATE
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.34
Upside
-35.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.31>1.3, MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Catalyst at 6.7 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-2.3=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 6.7, Value at 5.1, and Momentum at 4.8; the weakest are Growth at 1.6, Quality at 3.1, and Insider at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor Despite Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 3.1.
- P2Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.0 from the current -2.22.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak With Catalyst
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls below 2 of the next 4 quarters, down from 3 of the last 4.
- P4Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider selling falls below $500,000 over a 90-day period, down from the current $3,384,698.
- P5Overbought Momentum With Distribution
Trip ifRSI falls below 50 from the current 70, easing the overbought distribution risk.