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BBVABanco Bilbao Vizcaya ArgentariaSell5.5·$25.95+2.53%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria carries strong technical momentum and recently returned to beating earnings estimates, but the stock has moved above its near-term resistance target and the risk/reward has turned unfavorable, with a news-driven cautionary signal adding to the three-way alignment against initiating new exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Price Above Target Unfavorable Risk RewardStable
  • Technical Momentum Confirms AccumulationImproving
  • Earnings Returned To Beat After Two MissesStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

Earnings in 5 days (2026-07-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.95 — A.R:R is negative (-3.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.7% away).

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial services in Spain, Mexico, Turkey, South America, Europe, the United States, and Asia. The company offers traditional retail, wholesale, investment, and transaction banking. It also... Read more

$25.95-22.1% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#12 of 19 Banks - Diversified
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield4.26%(5y avg 4.63%)Payout39.66%sustainable
Stop $24.73Target $25.86(resistance)A.R:R -3.4:1
Analyst target$23.79-8.3%3 analysts
$25.86our TP
$25.95price
$23.79mean
$21
$29

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.95 — A.R:R is negative (-3.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.7% away)
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.5
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$143.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn33.1%
ROE19.0%
Rev Growth11.9%
Beta0.88
Dividend4.26%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV56%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -3.4=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $24.24Resistance $26.39

Price Targets

$25
$26
A.Upside-22.1%
A.R:R-3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-22.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BBVA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.95 — A.R:R is negative (-3.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $24.73. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BBVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.86 (-22.1% upside). Prior stop was $24.73. Stop-loss: $24.73.

What are the risks of investing in BBVA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.7% away); Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is BBVA overvalued or undervalued?

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria trades at a P/E of 12.5 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BBVA?

31 analysts cover BBVA with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria do?Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial services in Spain,...

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial services in Spain, Mexico, Turkey, South America, Europe, the United States, and Asia. The company offers traditional retail, wholesale, investment, and transaction banking. It also engages in financial, insurance, asset management, and capital markets businesses, as well as digital banking. The company was formerly known as Banco Bilbao Vizcaya, S.A. and changed its name to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. in January 2000. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. was founded in 1857 and is headquartered in Bilbao, Spain.

Related stocks: JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co.) · BAC (Bank of America Corporation) · C (Citigroup, Inc.) · BNY (The Bank of New York Mellon Cor) · WFC (Wells Fargo & Company)
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