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AYIAcuity Inc.Buy Wait5.8·$359.04-2.31%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A perfect four-quarter earnings beat record and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 signal a high-quality business entering its next report in 9 days, but a technical death cross and just 1.4% headroom to the analyst consensus target leave the near-term risk/reward tilted against new entry.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Piotroski Nine Quality FranchiseStable
  • Death Cross Technical BlockStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Acuity Inc. (AYI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts

Wait for pullback to $322.25. BUY gates pass at $359.04, but concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico (55.0%) and concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source supplier situations argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $322.25 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Acuity Inc. designs and markets lighting, building management systems, and audio-video platforms through two segments — Acuity Brands Lighting (ABL) and Acuity Intelligent Spaces (AIS) — sold primarily in North America via electrical distributors, system integrators, and direct... Read more

$359.04+15.1% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#4 of 24 Electrical Equipment & Parts
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.35%
IncomeYield0.21%(5y avg 0.26%)Payout4.91%sustainable
Entry $322.25(Ma200 Sticky)Stop $285.41Target $371.08(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$398.29+10.9%7 analysts
$371.08our TP
$359.04price
$398.29mean
$465

Wait for pullback to $322.25. BUY gates pass at $359.04, but concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico (55.0%) and concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source supplier situations argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $322.25 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Sep 30, 202688d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico (55.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source supplier situations
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.9
P/E (Fwd)16.6
Mkt Cap$10.7B
EV/EBITDA14.8
Profit Mgn10.3%
ROE17.4%
Rev Growth1.6%
Beta1.27
Dividend0.21%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.93neutral
IV46%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicMexico55%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 55% of our finished products are manufactured in Mexico'
  • HIGHSuppliersole-source supplier situations
    10-K Item 1A: 'which on a limited basis, results in sole-source supplier situations'
  • LOWGeographicnon-U.S. net sales14%
    10-K Item 1: 'net sales initiated outside of the U.S. represented approximately 14% of total net sales'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $279.73Resistance $378.65

Price Targets

$285
$322
$371
A.Upside+3.4%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.5% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-30 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AYI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $322.25. BUY gates pass at $359.04, but concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico (55.0%) and concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source supplier situations argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $322.25 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $371.08 (+3.4%), stop $285.41 (−25.8%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AYI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $371.08 (+15.1% upside). Target $371.08 (+3.4%), stop $285.41 (−25.8%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Stop-loss: $285.41.

What are the risks of investing in AYI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Mexico (55.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source supplier situations; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is AYI overvalued or undervalued?

Acuity Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.9 (forward 16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AYI?

13 analysts cover AYI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $398.

What does Acuity Inc. do?Acuity Inc. designs and markets lighting, building management systems, and audio-video platforms through two segments —...

Acuity Inc. designs and markets lighting, building management systems, and audio-video platforms through two segments — Acuity Brands Lighting (ABL) and Acuity Intelligent Spaces (AIS) — sold primarily in North America via electrical distributors, system integrators, and direct accounts. The company employs approximately 13,800 people and manufactures about 55% of finished goods in Mexico, investing $140.2 million in R&D in fiscal 2025.

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