Value
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.0 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.19
ATRO · Why this verdict
Why Astronics (ATRO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Astronics is an aerospace supplier with 27% revenue growth, a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, 34% ROE and 40.3% upside to the analyst target, held back by weak cash conversion, leverage and soft momentum.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Astronics has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 15.7%. Earnings track record | EPS beats again at the 2026-11-10 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats of 15% to 25% raise the bar, and a stock still below its 200-day average suggests the market doubts the run will continue. | ||
Revenue is growing 27% YoY, and ROE is an excellent 34%. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 because only revenue growth is available, so the growth reading rests on a single metric. | ||
Upside to the $83.30 analyst target is 40.3% from $59.39, with reward-to-risk of 4.07 versus 9.9% downside. Upside pct | Price moves toward the analyst target as earnings are delivered. | →Stable |
| CounterCoverage is light (4 analysts), so the target rests on few opinions, and raw upside of 65% was cut by a 15% haircut. | ||
Earnings quality is flagged, with free cash flow only 21% of net income, and a leverage penalty applies for debt-to-equity of 1.8. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow rises above 60% of net income as growth investment normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterRapid growth ties up cash in inventory and receivables, and leverage could limit flexibility if aerospace demand weakens. | ||
Momentum is soft at 4.2 with falling on-balance volume and price below the 200-day average, though that average is still rising 4.1% over 30 days. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score rises above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterVolume distribution can signal institutional selling ahead of a deeper decline, and implied volatility of 87% leaves room for large moves. | ||
Astronics has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 15.7%.
↑ImprovingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS beats again at the 2026-11-10 report.
CounterBeats of 15% to 25% raise the bar, and a stock still below its 200-day average suggests the market doubts the run will continue.
Revenue is growing 27% YoY, and ROE is an excellent 34%.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 because only revenue growth is available, so the growth reading rests on a single metric.
Upside to the $83.30 analyst target is 40.3% from $59.39, with reward-to-risk of 4.07 versus 9.9% downside.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target as earnings are delivered.
CounterCoverage is light (4 analysts), so the target rests on few opinions, and raw upside of 65% was cut by a 15% haircut.
Earnings quality is flagged, with free cash flow only 21% of net income, and a leverage penalty applies for debt-to-equity of 1.8.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow rises above 60% of net income as growth investment normalizes.
CounterRapid growth ties up cash in inventory and receivables, and leverage could limit flexibility if aerospace demand weakens.
Momentum is soft at 4.2 with falling on-balance volume and price below the 200-day average, though that average is still rising 4.1% over 30 days.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score rises above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average.
CounterVolume distribution can signal institutional selling ahead of a deeper decline, and implied volatility of 87% leaves room for large moves.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.4 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 5.9 |
| Net margin | 4.2 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 1.7 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 34%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 21% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.2 |
- ▸Strong growth: 27% YoY
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 4.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 61%
Insider
4.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.2 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.9 |
| quality rank | 7.6 |
| growth rank | 5.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 5.8 |
| 52w position | 2.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 0.2 |
| put call | 9.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 3.4 |
- ▸High IV: 85%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
3.73
Upside
+36.8%
Downside
9.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.34>1.3, MCap $2.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 9.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.73 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.2, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1, Insider at 4.1, and Technical at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 12% YoY from the current 27%.
- P3Large Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifUpside to analyst target falls below 15% from the current 40.3%.
- P4Weak Cash Conversion Leverage
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 0% from the current 21%.
- P5Pullback In Uptrend
Trip ifPrice drops below the $55.23 stop level from the current $59.39.