Apollo Commercial Real Estate's momentum has stalled below the minimum threshold, estimates are declining and the most recent quarter missed by 24%, put/call options skew sits at 1.46-to-1 bearish, and only 1.9% upside remains to the near-term resistance target — a setup that does not reward entering a new position at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Momentum Stalled Below Threshold→Stable
- Estimates Declining Large Recent Miss↓Deteriorating
- Unfavorable Risk Reward Near Target↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Apollo Commercial Real Estate F (ARI) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $6.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo); Earnings in 4 days (event risk).
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a commercial mortgage REIT externally managed by an Apollo Global Management subsidiary, originating and holding first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate debt secured by institutional-quality U.S. and... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $6.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo); Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Apollo Commercial Real Estate F
Latest news
- NEWS Frequency Electronics Posts Weak Q4 Results, Joins AST SpaceMobile And Other Big Stocks Moving Lower In Thursday’s Pre-M — benzinga Jul 16, 2026 negative
- NEWS Why JB Hunt Shares Are Trading Higher By Around 8%; Here Are 20 Stocks Moving Premarket — benzinga Jul 16, 2026 neutral
- NEWS This Keurig Dr Pepper Analyst Turns Bullish; Here Are Top 4 Upgrades For Thursday — benzinga Jun 25, 2026 positive
- NEWS This PVH Analyst Turns Bearish; Here Are Top 3 Downgrades For Thursday — benzinga Jun 25, 2026 negative
- NEWS BTIG Downgrades Apollo Comml Real Est to Neutral — benzinga Jun 25, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-07-26T08:02:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHcounterpartythe Manager (Apollo)10-K Item 1: 'We have no employees and are managed by the Manager pursuant to the management agreement between the Manager and us'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-15Item 5.02LOWDirector Scott S. Prince informed the company on May 14, 2026 that he will not stand for re-election at the next annual meeting; explicitly not the result of any dispute with the company.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-24Item 1.01MEDIUMOn April 24, 2026, the company entered an Amended and Restated Management Agreement with the Manager, changing the base management fee from a flat 1.5% of stockholders' equity to an ROE-linked 0.75%/1.5% structure paid in stock rather than cash.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-24Item 1.02MEDIUMThe new Amended and Restated Management Agreement superseded and replaced the existing Management Agreement dated September 23, 2009 between the company and the Manager.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $6.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo); Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $6.47. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $8.39 (+24.0% upside). Prior stop was $6.47. Stop-loss: $6.47.
Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo); Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Apollo Commercial Real Estate F trades at a P/E of 8.4 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover ARI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $10.
What does Apollo Commercial Real Estate F do?Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a commercial mortgage REIT externally managed by an Apollo Global Management...
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a commercial mortgage REIT externally managed by an Apollo Global Management subsidiary, originating and holding first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate debt secured by institutional-quality U.S. and European properties. As of December 31, 2025 it held an approximately $8.7 billion mortgage loan portfolio financed with $6.3 billion of secured debt, $746.3 million of term loans, and $500.0 million of senior secured notes, and in January 2026 it agreed to sell substantially all of that portfolio to Apollo affiliate A