Apollo Commercial Real Estate F (ARI) Stock Analysis
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.68 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The company is qualified... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.68 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — Apollo Commercial Real Estate F
Latest news
- NEWS Full Transcript: Apollo Comml Real Est Q1 2026 Earnings Call — benzinga Apr 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Apollo Comml Real Est Q1 Adj. EPS $0.22 Misses $0.27 Estimate, Sales $36.067M Miss $45.500M Estimate — benzinga Apr 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Earnings Scheduled For April 28, 2026 — benzinga Apr 28, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.68 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $10.36. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $10.86 (+1.7% upside). Prior stop was $10.36. Stop-loss: $10.36.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate F trades at a P/E of 13.3 (forward 14.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover ARI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $12.
What does Apollo Commercial Real Estate F do?Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires,...
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The company is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.