Apollo Commercial Real Estate's momentum has stalled below the minimum threshold, estimates are declining and the most recent quarter missed by 24%, put/call options skew sits at 1.46-to-1 bearish, and only 1.9% upside remains to the near-term resistance target — a setup that does not reward entering a new position at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Momentum Stalled Below Threshold↑Improving
- Estimates Declining Large Recent Miss↑Improving
- Unfavorable Risk Reward Near Target↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Apollo Commercial Real Estate F (ARI) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $6.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo).
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a commercial mortgage REIT externally managed by an Apollo Global Management subsidiary, originating and holding first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate debt secured by institutional-quality U.S. and... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $6.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Apollo Commercial Real Estate F
Latest news
- NEWS Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE:ARI) Hits New 12-Month Low - Here's What Happened - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Ari Emanuel Backs Paramount-WBD Deal In WSJ Op-Ed, Blasts States’ Antitrust Lawsuit As “Trash” - deadline.com — deadline.com positive
- NEWS Principal Financial Group Inc. Decreases Holdings in Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance $ARI - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Empyrean Capital Partners LP Purchases New Stake in Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance $ARI - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS ARI Q2'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 34.70M USD - TradingView — TradingView positive
Generated 2026-08-15T11:27:12Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHcounterpartythe Manager (Apollo)10-K Item 1: 'We have no employees and are managed by the Manager pursuant to the management agreement between the Manager and us'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-15Item 5.02LOWDirector Scott S. Prince informed the company on May 14, 2026 that he will not stand for re-election at the next annual meeting; explicitly not the result of any dispute with the company.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-24Item 1.01MEDIUMOn April 24, 2026, the company entered an Amended and Restated Management Agreement with the Manager, changing the base management fee from a flat 1.5% of stockholders' equity to an ROE-linked 0.75%/1.5% structure paid in stock rather than cash.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-24Item 1.02MEDIUMThe new Amended and Restated Management Agreement superseded and replaced the existing Management Agreement dated September 23, 2009 between the company and the Manager.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $6.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $6.51. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $7.85 (-0.4% upside). Prior stop was $6.51. Stop-loss: $6.51.
Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Apollo Commercial Real Estate F trades at a P/E of 8.6 (forward 20.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover ARI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $8.
What does Apollo Commercial Real Estate F do?Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a commercial mortgage REIT externally managed by an Apollo Global Management...
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a commercial mortgage REIT externally managed by an Apollo Global Management subsidiary, originating and holding first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate debt secured by institutional-quality U.S. and European properties. As of December 31, 2025 it held an approximately $8.7 billion mortgage loan portfolio financed with $6.3 billion of secured debt, $746.3 million of term loans, and $500.0 million of senior secured notes, and in January 2026 it agreed to sell substantially all of that portfolio to Apollo affiliate A