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ARDXArdelyx, Inc.Sell6.3·$5.66-0.53%
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Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.66: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 16.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.58; Below-average business quality.

Ardelyx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines to treat unmet medical needs in the United States and internationally. The company offers IBSRELA, a minimally absorbed small molecule therapy for the treatment of patients with irritable bowel syndrome with... Read more

$5.66+150.2% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#18 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield0.01%
Stop $5.28Target $14.21(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 16.8:1
Analyst target$16.33+188.6%9 analysts
$14.21our TP
$5.66price
$16.33mean
$19

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.66: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 16.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.58; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — Ardelyx, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T14:56:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA-41.2
Profit Mgn-13.6%
ROE-39.5%
Rev Growth27.5%
Beta0.58
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.58bearish
Max Pain$3-47.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Clinical-stage biotech: losses expected pre-commercialisation. Quality floor doesn't distinguish R&D investment from operational decay — components above tell the real story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
3.0
Rule Of 40
5.5
Piotroski F
5.6
Moat
5.8
Current Ratio
9.5
Gross Margin
10.0
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 0%, FCF yield 0.0%)

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Macd
4.0
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 16.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $5.31Resistance $6.44

Price Targets

$5
$14
A.Upside+151.1%
A.R:R16.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARDX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.66: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 16.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.58; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $5.28. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARDX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.21 (+150.2% upside). Prior stop was $5.28. Stop-loss: $5.28.

What are the risks of investing in ARDX?

Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is ARDX overvalued or undervalued?

Ardelyx, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARDX?

17 analysts cover ARDX with a consensus score of 4.5/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Ardelyx, Inc. do?Ardelyx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines to treat unmet medical needs in the United States and...

Ardelyx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines to treat unmet medical needs in the United States and internationally. The company offers IBSRELA, a minimally absorbed small molecule therapy for the treatment of patients with irritable bowel syndrome with constipation; and XPHOZAH, a phosphate absorption inhibitor to reduce serum phosphorus in adults with chronic kidney disease on dialysis. Ardelyx, Inc. was formerly known as Nteryx, Inc. and changed its name to Ardelyx, Inc. in June 2008. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

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