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AHCOAdaptHealth Corp.Sell5.4·$10.00-5.66%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A deeply discounted valuation and rising volume accumulation contrast sharply with a pattern of persistent earnings misses and business quality metrics well below the minimum acceptable threshold, making the setup speculative and uninvestable despite the favorable headline risk/reward geometry.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Minimum FloorStable
  • Extreme Valuation DiscountStable
  • Persistent Earnings MissesStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.00: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

AdaptHealth Corp. is a national home medical equipment and healthcare-at-home provider organized into four segments - Sleep Health, Respiratory Health, Diabetes Health and Wellness at Home - serving approximately 4.3 million patients annually across 48 states through roughly 640... Read more

$10.00+13.2% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#31 of 64 Medical Devices
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield18.30%
Stop $10.04Target $12.18(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$14.00+40.0%8 analysts
$12.18our TP
$10.00price
$14.00mean
$18

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.00: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and news legal. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — AdaptHealth Corp.

Generated 2026-07-06T05:51:45Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)9.2
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA5.8
Profit Mgn-2.4%
ROE-4.8%
Rev Growth5.4%
Beta1.45
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV144%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -2.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
0.1
Operating Margin
0.3
Roa
1.8
Moat
3.6
Current Ratio
3.7
Piotroski F
5.6
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.3
52w Position
6.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
GatesA.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotNEWS LEGALMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $9.45Resistance $10.95

Price Targets

$10
$12
A.Upside+21.8%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! NEWS:LEGAL

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AHCO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.00: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $10.04. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AHCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.18 (+13.2% upside). Prior stop was $10.04. Stop-loss: $10.04.

What are the risks of investing in AHCO?

Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0).

Is AHCO overvalued or undervalued?

AdaptHealth Corp. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AHCO?

14 analysts cover AHCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $14.

What does AdaptHealth Corp. do?AdaptHealth Corp. is a national home medical equipment and healthcare-at-home provider organized into four segments -...

AdaptHealth Corp. is a national home medical equipment and healthcare-at-home provider organized into four segments - Sleep Health, Respiratory Health, Diabetes Health and Wellness at Home - serving approximately 4.3 million patients annually across 48 states through roughly 640 locations. The company derives about 61% of net revenue from third-party private payors, with sleep therapy equipment and supplies alone contributing approximately 42% of 2025 net revenue and PAP resupply products contributing about 32%.

Related stocks: GMED (Globus Medical, Inc.) · DCTH (Delcath Systems, Inc.) · BWAY (Brainsway Ltd.) · TCMD (Tactile Systems Technology, Inc) · PODD (Insulet Corporation)
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