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AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.96: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

AdaptHealth Corp., together with its subsidiaries, distributes home medical equipment (HME), medical supplies, and home and related services in the United States. It operates through Sleep Health, Respiratory Health, Diabetes Health, and Wellness at Home segments. The company... Read more

$12.96+1.3% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#39 of 40 Medical Devices
Stop $12.10Target $13.13(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$13.19+1.8%8 analysts
$13.13our TP
$12.96price
$13.19mean
$10
$17

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.96: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-11.5% upside)
Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)10.4
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA6.1
Profit Mgn-2.2%
ROE-4.3%
Rev Growth-1.2%
Beta1.50
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.60bullish
IV85%elevated
Max Pain$3-80.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -1.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.2
Declining revenue: -1%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Unprofitable operations — net margin -2.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
0.2
Roa
1.9
Operating Margin
2.5
Current Ratio
4.1
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MEarnings in 4 days

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.5
Quality Rank
3.3
Value Rank
9.5
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEINSIDER 2.74%=EXTREMEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dMomentum 5.5>=5.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.69Resistance $13.40

Price Targets

$12
$13
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AHCO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.96: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $12.10. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AHCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.13 (+1.3% upside). Prior stop was $12.10. Stop-loss: $12.10.

What are the risks of investing in AHCO?

Target reached (-11.5% upside); Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0).

Is AHCO overvalued or undervalued?

AdaptHealth Corp. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AHCO?

14 analysts cover AHCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $13.

What does AdaptHealth Corp. do?AdaptHealth Corp., together with its subsidiaries, distributes home medical equipment (HME), medical supplies, and home...

AdaptHealth Corp., together with its subsidiaries, distributes home medical equipment (HME), medical supplies, and home and related services in the United States. It operates through Sleep Health, Respiratory Health, Diabetes Health, and Wellness at Home segments. The company offers sleep therapy equipment, supplies, and related services, such as continuous positive airway pressure and BiLevel services to individuals suffering from obstructive sleep apnea; oxygen and home mechanical ventilation equipment and supplies and related chronic therapy services; and medical devices, including continuous glucose monitors and insulin pumps for the treatment of diabetes; HME to patients discharged from acute care and other facilities; and other HME devices and supplies. It also provides PAP machines, wheelchairs, hospital beds, oxygen concentrators, ventilators, insulin pumps, diabetes management and wound care supplies, orthopedic bracing, breast pumps and supplies, walkers, commodes, enteral supplies, and incontinence supplies. The company services beneficiaries of Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurance payors. AdaptHealth Corp. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.

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