AdaptHealth trades at a deep discount with 32.6% analyst upside and some insider buying, but quality of 1.6 is far below the floor, three straight earnings misses, a confirmed downtrend and earnings in 2 days make it speculative.
Thesis pillars
- Very Low Quality Cash Burn→Stable
- Persistent Earnings Misses→Stable
- Confirmed Downtrend↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026
AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Healthcare · Medical Devices
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.28: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
AdaptHealth Corp. is a national home medical equipment and healthcare-at-home provider organized into four segments - Sleep Health, Respiratory Health, Diabetes Health and Wellness at Home - serving approximately 4.3 million patients annually across 48 states through roughly 640... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.28: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — AdaptHealth Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS AdaptHealth Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS AdaptHealth Corp. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026
- NEWS AdaptHealth Raises FY2026 Sales Guidance from $2.850B-$2.890B to $2.880B-$2.900B vs $2.955B Est — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS AdaptHealth Q3 Sales $745.648M Miss $746.446M Estimate — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 negative
- NEWS AdaptHealth Corp. Announces Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release Date — fiscal.ai Oct 21, 2026
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:54:37Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Unprofitable operations — net margin -6.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.28: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Prior stop was $5.84. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $7.71 (+22.7% upside). Prior stop was $5.84. Stop-loss: $5.84.
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).
AdaptHealth Corp. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -34.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts rate AHCO, with a consensus score of 4.3/5. 7 analysts publish price targets averaging $9.
What does AdaptHealth Corp. do?AdaptHealth Corp. is a national home medical equipment and healthcare-at-home provider organized into four segments -...
AdaptHealth Corp. is a national home medical equipment and healthcare-at-home provider organized into four segments - Sleep Health, Respiratory Health, Diabetes Health and Wellness at Home - serving approximately 4.3 million patients annually across 48 states through roughly 640 locations. The company derives about 61% of net revenue from third-party private payors, with sleep therapy equipment and supplies alone contributing approximately 42% of 2025 net revenue and PAP resupply products contributing about 32%.