Value
8.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.9 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Attractively valued
AHCO · Why this verdict
Why AdaptHealth (AHCO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AdaptHealth trades at a deep discount with 32.6% analyst upside and some insider buying, but quality of 1.6 is far below the floor, three straight earnings misses, a confirmed downtrend and earnings in 2 days make it speculative.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality of 1.6 is far below the 4.0 floor, with free cash flow at -2% of revenue and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive and the quality score rises above 3.0. | →Stable |
| CounterHealthcare equipment providers with heavy leases and debt can show negative cash flow for long stretches, and ROE and net margin scores are near zero. | ||
AdaptHealth missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including -139.5% in August 2026, with earnings due in 2 days. Avg surprise pct | The 2026-11-03 report meets or beats the consensus. | →Stable |
| CounterRepeated misses with widening magnitude suggest forecasts have been too optimistic and another miss is plausible. | ||
Price is below a 200-day average falling 6.4% per 30 days, with a death cross and falling on-balance volume, confirming a downtrend 57% off the high. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day slope flattens and momentum rises above 4.5. | ↑Improving |
| CounterShort interest of 10% and persistent distribution show sellers still dominate. | ||
The $7.71 analyst target implies 32.6% upside against 9.2% downside from $5.81, a reward-to-risk of 3.55. Estimated upside | Price moves toward the target if earnings stabilise. | →Stable |
| CounterSeven analysts is light coverage and targets lag deteriorating results; implied volatility of 359% shows how uncertain the price is. | ||
Modest insider buying of $520,530, or 0.067% of market cap, is a rare positive signal against a weak backdrop. Insider breakdown | Additional insider purchases follow the next report. | →Stable |
| CounterThe purchase is small relative to market cap and does not offset the operating problems. | ||
Quality of 1.6 is far below the 4.0 floor, with free cash flow at -2% of revenue and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive and the quality score rises above 3.0.
CounterHealthcare equipment providers with heavy leases and debt can show negative cash flow for long stretches, and ROE and net margin scores are near zero.
AdaptHealth missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including -139.5% in August 2026, with earnings due in 2 days.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- The 2026-11-03 report meets or beats the consensus.
CounterRepeated misses with widening magnitude suggest forecasts have been too optimistic and another miss is plausible.
Price is below a 200-day average falling 6.4% per 30 days, with a death cross and falling on-balance volume, confirming a downtrend 57% off the high.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day slope flattens and momentum rises above 4.5.
CounterShort interest of 10% and persistent distribution show sellers still dominate.
The $7.71 analyst target implies 32.6% upside against 9.2% downside from $5.81, a reward-to-risk of 3.55.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the target if earnings stabilise.
CounterSeven analysts is light coverage and targets lag deteriorating results; implied volatility of 359% shows how uncertain the price is.
Modest insider buying of $520,530, or 0.067% of market cap, is a rare positive signal against a weak backdrop.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Additional insider purchases follow the next report.
CounterThe purchase is small relative to market cap and does not offset the operating problems.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.7 |
Momentum
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 10.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
- ▸Volume surge (3.2x avg) on up move
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 41%
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $520,530 (0.065% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.8 |
| quality rank | 3.2 |
| growth rank | 5.1 |
Technical
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.6 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (5.6%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.9 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 0.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 4.0 |
- ▸High IV: 133%
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.9>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
2.26
Upside
+22.7%
Downside
10.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -53% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Value at 8.3 and asymmetric R:R of 2.26.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Momentum at 7.9, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Quality at 1.6, Technical at 1.7, and Catalyst at 3.2. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Very Low Quality Cash Burn
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below -5% of revenue from the current -2%.
- P2Persistent Earnings Misses
Trip ifQuarterly EPS falls below -$0.10 versus the recent -$0.07.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifThe 200-day average slope worsens to below -10% per 30 days from the current -6.4%.
- P4Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $5.40 stop-loss level.
- P5Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifInsider net purchases fall below $100,000 over the next 90 days.