Skip to main content
AFLAFLAC IncorporatedSell5.9·$121.45+0.29%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Aflac operates a wide-moat insurance franchise with strong margins and 28% revenue growth at an attractively valued forward multiple, but geographic concentration in Japan at 53% of the business and two consecutive earnings misses temper the near-term outlook.

Thesis pillars

  • Japan Concentration HeadwindDeteriorating
  • Wide Moat Franchise QualityDeteriorating
  • Attractively Valued Forward MultipleImproving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AFLAC Incorporated (AFL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Life

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $121.45 — A.R:R is negative (-3.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%).

Aflac provides supplemental health and life insurance across Japan and the United States through two reporting segments, with Aflac Japan contributing 53% of 2025 total adjusted revenues as the largest provider of cancer insurance in Japan by policies in force. Revenue comes... Read more

$121.45-14.9% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#9 of 16 Insurance - Life
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.49%
IncomeYield2.02%(5y avg 2.16%)Payout25.67%sustainable
Stop $117.13Target $127.62(resistance)A.R:R -3.0:1
Analyst target$118.86-2.1%14 analysts
$127.62our TP
$121.45price
$118.86mean
$99
$138

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $121.45 — A.R:R is negative (-3.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About AFLAC Incorporated

About AFLAC Incorporated

Aflac Japan contributed 53% of Aflac Incorporated's total adjusted revenues in 2025 and held 76% of total assets at year-end, making Japan the company's primary market across two reporting segments. The Japan operation distributes cancer and medical insurance through approximately 6,300 sales agencies with roughly 112,000 licensed associates, an alliance with Dai-ichi Life whose representatives sell cancer products, and agreements with approximately 90% of all Japanese banks. Aflac Japan is regulated by Japan's Financial Services Agency, which maintains a solvency margin ratio standard sensitive to interest rate and foreign exchange changes.

Aflac earns premium revenue from supplemental health and life policies that pay fixed cash benefits on eligible claims, regardless of what primary insurance covers. In Japan, the core portfolio centers on cancer insurance—a market the company entered in 1974—complemented by medical, nursing care, and life products; new products Miraito (cancer) and Anshin Palette (medical) launched in March and December 2025, respectively. In the United States, the company distributes accident, disability, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, and life coverage primarily through the worksite, with U.S. group business generating over one-third of annual sales in the fourth quarter during open enrollment. U.S. subsidiaries Aflac, CAIC, and TOIC are domiciled in Nebraska and regulated by the Nebraska Department of Insurance; the NDOI and New York State Department of Financial Services each completed full-scope financial examinations covering 2020–2023 in 2025, with no material findings.

Show full overview

Aflac Japan's interest-rate sensitivity is a persistent structural exposure: the 10-K notes that Japan's low rates constrain reinvestment yields on the yen-denominated portfolio, while rising rates could trigger policy surrenders, generate unrealized losses on fixed-maturity holdings, and reduce the FSA solvency margin ratio in ways that restrict dividends to the parent. The Bank of Japan ended its negative-interest-rate policy in March 2024, meaning subsequent rate increases could simultaneously improve future reinvestment economics and erode fair values on existing portfolio positions—a dual-direction risk that the company's current hedging program does not fully neutralize.

See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Life

From AFLAC Incorporated's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202682d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.0
P/E (Fwd)16.0
Mkt Cap$60.7B
EV/EBITDA11.2
Profit Mgn26.9%
ROE16.9%
Rev Growth-1.0%
Beta0.59
Dividend2.02%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.43bullish
IV32%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicJapan53%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Aflac Japan's adjusted revenues accounted for 53% of the Company's total adjusted revenues in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R -3.0=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $119.74Resistance $130.22

Price Targets

$117
$128
A.Upside-14.9%
A.R:R-3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.9% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AFL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $121.45 — A.R:R is negative (-3.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $117.13. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AFL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $127.62 (-14.9% upside). Prior stop was $117.13. Stop-loss: $117.13.

What are the risks of investing in AFL?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is AFL overvalued or undervalued?

AFLAC Incorporated trades at a P/E of 13.0 (forward 16.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AFL?

23 analysts cover AFL with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $119.

What does AFLAC Incorporated do?Aflac provides supplemental health and life insurance across Japan and the United States through two reporting...

Aflac provides supplemental health and life insurance across Japan and the United States through two reporting segments, with Aflac Japan contributing 53% of 2025 total adjusted revenues as the largest provider of cancer insurance in Japan by policies in force. Revenue comes from fixed-benefit policies that pay cash regardless of primary insurance coverage, distributed through approximately 6,300 sales agencies in Japan and roughly 5,300 active U.S. agents.

Related stocks: LNC (Lincoln National Corporation) · PUK (Prudential Public Limited Compa) · JXN (Jackson Financial Inc.) · PRI (Primerica, Inc.) · PRU (Prudential Financial, Inc.)
Home Stocks AFL

Latest news

Latest News

Yahoo Finance17d ago
GuruFocus17d ago
MarketBeat80d ago
StockStory10d agoEarnings
FinancialContent10d agoEarnings
The Globe and Mail10d ago
TradingView10d agoEarnings
MarketBeat81d ago
Yahoo Finance81d agoAnalyst
Yahoo Finance16d ago
MarketBeat16d agoEarnings
MarketBeat16d ago
MarketBeat16d agoAnalyst
MarketBeat16d ago
Dars.gov.et16d ago
Yahoo Finance79d ago
MarketBeat86d ago
Finance.yahoo.com9d agoEarnings
Yahoo Finance9d agoEarnings
Seeking Alpha9d ago
Loading more...