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AFLAFLAC IncorporatedSell6.2·$120.88+2.02%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Aflac operates a wide-moat insurance franchise with strong margins and 28% revenue growth at an attractively valued forward multiple, but geographic concentration in Japan at 53% of the business and two consecutive earnings misses temper the near-term outlook.

Thesis pillars

  • Japan Concentration HeadwindStable
  • Wide Moat Franchise QualityStable
  • Attractively Valued Forward MultipleStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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AFLAC Incorporated (AFL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Life

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $120.88 — A.R:R is negative (-3.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%).

Aflac provides supplemental health and life insurance across Japan and the United States through two reporting segments, with Aflac Japan contributing 53% of 2025 total adjusted revenues as the largest provider of cancer insurance in Japan by policies in force. Revenue comes... Read more

$120.88+15.0% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#6 of 16 Insurance - Life
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield8.00%
IncomeYield2.02%(5y avg 2.17%)Payout26.86%sustainable
Stop $116.30Target $139.01(default +15%)A.R:R -3.6:1
Analyst target$112.43-7.0%14 analysts
$139.01our TP
$120.88price
$112.43mean
$99
$139

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $120.88 — A.R:R is negative (-3.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About AFLAC Incorporated

About AFLAC Incorporated

Aflac Japan contributed 53% of Aflac Incorporated's total adjusted revenues in 2025 and held 76% of total assets at year-end, making Japan the company's primary market across two reporting segments. The Japan operation distributes cancer and medical insurance through approximately 6,300 sales agencies with roughly 112,000 licensed associates, an alliance with Dai-ichi Life whose representatives sell cancer products, and agreements with approximately 90% of all Japanese banks. Aflac Japan is regulated by Japan's Financial Services Agency, which maintains a solvency margin ratio standard sensitive to interest rate and foreign exchange changes.

Aflac earns premium revenue from supplemental health and life policies that pay fixed cash benefits on eligible claims, regardless of what primary insurance covers. In Japan, the core portfolio centers on cancer insurance—a market the company entered in 1974—complemented by medical, nursing care, and life products; new products Miraito (cancer) and Anshin Palette (medical) launched in March and December 2025, respectively. In the United States, the company distributes accident, disability, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, and life coverage primarily through the worksite, with U.S. group business generating over one-third of annual sales in the fourth quarter during open enrollment. U.S. subsidiaries Aflac, CAIC, and TOIC are domiciled in Nebraska and regulated by the Nebraska Department of Insurance; the NDOI and New York State Department of Financial Services each completed full-scope financial examinations covering 2020–2023 in 2025, with no material findings.

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Aflac Japan's interest-rate sensitivity is a persistent structural exposure: the 10-K notes that Japan's low rates constrain reinvestment yields on the yen-denominated portfolio, while rising rates could trigger policy surrenders, generate unrealized losses on fixed-maturity holdings, and reduce the FSA solvency margin ratio in ways that restrict dividends to the parent. The Bank of Japan ended its negative-interest-rate policy in March 2024, meaning subsequent rate increases could simultaneously improve future reinvestment economics and erode fair values on existing portfolio positions—a dual-direction risk that the company's current hedging program does not fully neutralize.

See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Life

From AFLAC Incorporated's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202634d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.0% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.8
P/E (Fwd)15.9
Mkt Cap$61.5B
EV/EBITDA11.5
Profit Mgn25.6%
ROE16.5%
Rev Growth27.9%
Beta0.60
Dividend2.02%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.11bearish
IV34%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicJapan53%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Aflac Japan's adjusted revenues accounted for 53% of the Company's total adjusted revenues in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.0
52w Position
10.0
GatesA.R:R -3.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 34d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $114.42Resistance $120.88

Price Targets

$116
$139
A.Upside+15.0%
A.R:R-3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-19.1% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (34d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AFL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $120.88 — A.R:R is negative (-3.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $116.30. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AFL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $139.01 (+15.0% upside). Prior stop was $116.30. Stop-loss: $116.30.

What are the risks of investing in AFL?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.0% away).

Is AFL overvalued or undervalued?

AFLAC Incorporated trades at a P/E of 13.8 (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AFL?

23 analysts cover AFL with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $112.

What does AFLAC Incorporated do?Aflac provides supplemental health and life insurance across Japan and the United States through two reporting...

Aflac provides supplemental health and life insurance across Japan and the United States through two reporting segments, with Aflac Japan contributing 53% of 2025 total adjusted revenues as the largest provider of cancer insurance in Japan by policies in force. Revenue comes from fixed-benefit policies that pay cash regardless of primary insurance coverage, distributed through approximately 6,300 sales agencies in Japan and roughly 5,300 active U.S. agents.

Related stocks: PRI (Primerica, Inc.) · MFC (Manulife Financial Corporation) · PUK (Prudential Public Limited Compa) · LNC (Lincoln National Corporation) · GL (Globe Life Inc.)
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