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AEPAmerican Electric Power CompanySell5.3·$138.00+2.18%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

American Electric Power offers regulated utility stability with a recent earnings track record of three beats in four quarters, but the stock has essentially reached the analyst consensus target with only 0.5% headroom remaining; free cash flow is deeply negative at -190% of net income and leverage is elevated at a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.6, creating an unfavorable risk/reward profile at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Momentum Near Analyst CeilingStable
  • Negative Free Cash Flow SustainabilityStable
  • Elevated Leverage Value TrapStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

American Electric Power Company (AEP) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $138.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.7% away).

American Electric Power serves electric customers across portions of 11 states—including Ohio, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia—through regulated public utility subsidiaries subject to FERC and state commission oversight, with approximately 17,581 employees as of December 31,... Read more

$138.00-1.4% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#14 of 42 Utilities - Regulated Electric
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-9.23%
IncomeYield2.74%(5y avg 3.51%)Payout55.62%sustainable
Stop $133.25Target $136.54(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$145.10+5.1%21 analysts
$136.54our TP
$138.00price
$145.10mean
$133
$173

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $138.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202626d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.7% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.5
P/E (Fwd)20.2
Mkt Cap$75.4B
EV/EBITDA14.0
Profit Mgn16.3%
ROE12.6%
Rev Growth10.2%
Beta0.50
Dividend2.74%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.09bearish
IV40%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCommoditycoal and lignite generation43%
    10-K Item 1: 'Coal and Lignite | 43%'
  • MEDIUMCustomertwo largest REPs (AEP Texas)38%
    10-K Item 1A: 'AEP Texas' two largest REPs accounted for 38% of its operating revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.6
Bollinger
1.0
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $125.96Resistance $139.33

Price Targets

$133
$137
A.Upside-1.1%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AEP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $138.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $133.25. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AEP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $136.54 (-1.4% upside). Prior stop was $133.25. Stop-loss: $133.25.

What are the risks of investing in AEP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.7% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.

Is AEP overvalued or undervalued?

American Electric Power Company trades at a P/E of 20.5 (forward 20.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AEP?

28 analysts cover AEP with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $145.

What does American Electric Power Company do?American Electric Power serves electric customers across portions of 11 states—including Ohio, Texas, Virginia, and...

American Electric Power serves electric customers across portions of 11 states—including Ohio, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia—through regulated public utility subsidiaries subject to FERC and state commission oversight, with approximately 17,581 employees as of December 31, 2025. AEP's subsidiaries generate, transmit, and distribute electricity under authorized returns on equity ranging from 9.25% to 10.50% across its Vertically Integrated Utilities, Transmission and Distribution, and other segments.

Related stocks: PCG (Pacific Gas & Electric Co.) · PEG (Public Service Enterprise Group) · NEE (NextEra Energy, Inc.) · ELPC (Companhia Paranaense de Energia) · DUK (Duke Energy Corporation (Holdin)
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